Astro Teller on Moonshot Thinking

X’s Astro Teller Discusses Moonshot Innovation at TechCrunch Disrupt 2025

At Monday’s TechCrunch Disrupt 2025 conference, Astro Teller, CEO of X – Alphabet’s research and development division – outlined the principles behind successful “moonshot” projects and the company’s approach to rapid experimentation. A limited-time 50% discount is currently available for remaining tickets.

From Moonshots to Reality: Waymo and Wing

X’s portfolio includes several ventures that originated as ambitious moonshots. Waymo, the autonomous driving technology company, and Wing, the drone delivery service, stand as prominent examples of this innovative process.

The “2% Hit Rate” and Embracing Failure

Teller highlighted that X operates with a remarkably low success rate, achieving a “2% hit rate.” This signifies that the majority of projects undertaken do not ultimately succeed, a reality the company actively embraces.

Defining a True Moonshot

According to X, a genuine moonshot is characterized by three key elements. First, it must address a significant global challenge. Second, a potential product or service, however improbable, should offer a solution to this problem. Finally, a novel technology must present a viable path, however small, towards achieving that solution.

“Imagine proposing a teleporter at X,” Teller explained. “That’s a classic moonshot hypothesis. We’d provide initial funding not to prove its feasibility, but to rigorously demonstrate its limitations.”

Why Reasonable Ideas Aren't Moonshots

Teller clarified that X deliberately avoids projects that appear immediately plausible. An idea lacking a degree of inherent risk isn’t aligned with the company’s core mission of pursuing truly groundbreaking innovations. It may be a good idea, but simply not a moonshot.

Testing and Iteration: The "Kill It" Philosophy

X prioritizes projects that can be tested with minimal investment, allowing for quick assessment of their potential. If initial findings suggest an idea is overly ambitious, the project is swiftly discontinued. Conversely, promising results warrant further exploration.

“We aim to identify opportunities to disprove our ideas,” Teller stated. “If an idea proves more challenging than anticipated, we move on. If it’s less challenging, we invest further and seek the next opportunity to refine or abandon it.”

The Importance of Audacity and Humility

Teller stressed the crucial balance between audacity and humility in the pursuit of moonshots. Bold ambition is essential to initiate these ventures, but a willingness to acknowledge limitations is equally vital to avoid prolonged, unproductive efforts.

X’s Investment Strategy and Early Termination

X initiates over 100 projects annually. While only 2% reach a mature stage after five to six years, a substantial 44% of the company’s funding is allocated to projects demonstrating significant potential. This is achieved by proactively terminating unsuccessful ventures early in the development process.

Relearning Innovation: Rekindling Childhood Creativity

Teller believes that innovation is a skill that can be cultivated. He suggests that everyone possesses innate creativity from childhood, but often loses it through the learning process. Creating a supportive environment, free from fear of failure, can help individuals rediscover and harness this potential.