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wish wants to be the amazon for the rest of us; will retail investors buy it?

AVATAR Connie Loizos
Connie Loizos
Editor in Chief & General Manager, TechCrunch
December 8, 2020
wish wants to be the amazon for the rest of us; will retail investors buy it?

Many consumers recognize Wish as a marketplace offering inexpensive goods sourced from China, however, as the company approaches its initial public offering, the ten-year-old, San Francisco-based business is actively presenting itself as an alternative shopping destination comparable to Amazon.

Based on recent reports and information from sources, Wish aims to establish itself as a domestically-focused option to the trillion-dollar e-commerce leader, specifically targeting the approximately 60% of U.S. households that lack sufficient savings to cover three months of living expenses. These budget-minded shoppers may find Amazon Prime unaffordable and, according to Wish, are prepared to accept a slightly longer delivery timeframe in exchange for significantly lower prices.

The success of this strategy will soon be determined by public market investors. Wish filed plans today to offer 46 million shares, priced between $22 and $24 each, in an IPO anticipated next week. This pricing would give Wish a valuation of up to $14 billion, an increase from the $11.2 billion valuation assigned by private investors in the past.

Wish has compelling reasons to be optimistic about its prospects. The company continues to attract new users, with its mobile shopping application being downloaded 9 million times last month, according to Sensor Tower, exceeding the 6 million downloads for Amazon’s app and the 2 million for Walmart. In 2019, Wish ranked as the 16th most downloaded app across all categories.

The platform offers a substantial variety of products to those who explore it. According to the company’s prospectus, its more than 100 million monthly active users across over 100 countries have access to approximately 150 million items from 500,000 merchants.

While the platform is known for offering inexpensive and often novelty items, such as tattoo kits and pet grooming supplies, it increasingly includes essential goods like paper towels and cleaning products – items that encourage repeat purchases.

This represents a shift for the company, which initially focused on low-cost, lightweight products. Wish has consistently partnered with unbranded merchants, primarily in China, who benefit from the platform’s ability to connect them with new customers without impacting their existing sales channels, as these merchants do not have substantial marketing expenses built into their product costs.

Previously, Wish relied heavily on a partnership between the USPS and China’s ePacket service, which allowed for the shipment of goods to the U.S. for a cost of $1 to $2, provided the items were not excessively large or heavy. However, a new USPS pricing structure implemented on July 1st now requires companies like Wish to pay higher shipping fees or utilize more expensive commercial shipping options.

Wish proactively developed alternative solutions to mitigate this change. One approach involves consolidating multiple orders in China based on customer locations, then shipping them in bulk to the U.S. for local distribution.

Furthermore, since early 2019, Wish has collaborated with tens of thousands of small businesses in the U.S. and Europe, offering them storage space in exchange for access to Wish’s customer base and a financial incentive for in-store pickups. (Wish also offers additional compensation to store owners who provide direct delivery to customers.) Forbes reported that these partnerships created an “inexpensive distribution network practically overnight.”

This strategy aligns with a broader narrative that contrasts Amazon, which is attempting to integrate convenience stores into its business model, with Wish, which may be supporting the success of existing local retailers. Wish also operates with a significantly lower asset base compared to Amazon, as it does not maintain inventory, cargo fleets, or warehouses.

Despite these advancements, Wish still faces challenges as an unprofitable company, primarily related to its relatively small scale compared to its larger competitors.

Although the company is experiencing moderate revenue growth, its financial reports also indicate consistent losses, partly due to marketing expenditures. (In 2019, Wish reported $1.9 billion in revenue, a 10% increase year-over-year, but also a net loss of $136 million.)

Wish is expanding into new international markets, but remains heavily reliant on merchants based in China. To address this, the company is reportedly increasing its partnerships with retailers in the U.S. and Europe, including those seeking to offload excess or returned inventory, as well as those specializing in refurbished electronics. “We’d love to diversify,” stated co-founder and CEO Peter Szulczewski to Forbes earlier this year.

Wish has consistently encountered issues with product quality, which it is still working to resolve. Online, there are even dedicated YouTube channels that showcase the discrepancies between advertised Wish products and their actual appearance.

This issue stems, in part, from cultural differences. During a 2016 event hosted by this publication, co-founder and CEO Peter Szulczewski discussed the need to educate Chinese merchants about American consumer expectations. “Consumer expectations in China are very different,” Szulczewski explained. “If you order a red sweater and you get a blue one, [shoppers are] like, ‘Eh, next time.’ So we have to educate merchants that it’s not okay to ship a blue sweater because you don’t have any red sweaters in stock.”

Wish is actively working to improve quality control and combat fraudulent activity on the platform. This includes hiring a former Facebook community manager as its director of community engagement, with the responsibility of mobilizing Wish users to identify and address problematic sellers. However, Wish has undoubtedly lost customers due to unsatisfactory shopping experiences.

Next week’s events will be closely monitored by public market investors, as well as the venture firms that have collectively invested $2.1 billion in the company, including Formation 8, Third Point Ventures, GGV Capital, Raptor Group, Legend Capital, IDG Capital, DST Global, 8VC, 137 Ventures and Vika Ventures.

Anna Palmer of Boston-based Flybridge Capital Partners, who does not have a financial stake in Wish but closely follows the evolution of e-commerce, believes that Wish “serves a different use case and a different customer need” than Amazon.

“The strong performance of the off-price and discount retail sector – including retailers like Dollar General and Dollar Tree – suggests continued growth potential for Wish, particularly given the logistical challenges associated with bringing the discount market online.”

#Wish#stock#investment#retail#Amazon#marketplace

Connie Loizos

Loizos began her coverage of Silicon Valley in the late 1990s, starting her career with the pioneering Red Herring magazine. Before becoming Editor in Chief and General Manager of TechCrunch in September 2023, she served as the publication’s Silicon Valley Editor. She also established StrictlyVC, a well-regarded daily electronic newsletter and lecture program, which was integrated into TechCrunch as a sub-brand following its acquisition by Yahoo in August 2023. For contact or to confirm communications originating from Connie, please reach out via email at connie@strictlyvc.com or connie@techcrunch.com, or connect through encrypted messaging on Signal at ConnieLoizos.53.
Connie Loizos