TrendForce forecasts a gradual rebound for the worldwide smartphone market in 2021 following a challenging year. However, Huawei is not anticipated to experience this improvement and is projected to be excluded from the list of the top six smartphone manufacturers globally, based on production volume.

Global smartphone production experienced an 11% decrease in 2020, totaling 1.25 billion units. This year, TrendForce anticipates a 9% increase, reaching 1.36 million units, driven by device replacements and growing demand in developing markets. Nevertheless, this modest recovery is dependent on the ongoing progression of the pandemic and the current worldwide shortage of semiconductors, which is causing production setbacks throughout the electronics sector.

The leading six smartphone brands in 2020, ranked by production volume, were Samsung, Apple, Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo. TrendForce now projects Huawei will no longer be included in this top tier this year, with the revised list consisting of Samsung, Apple, Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo, and Transsion.

These six companies are predicted to control 80% of the global smartphone market in 2021, positioning Huawei in seventh place.

The primary factor contributing to Huawei’s decline is the sale of its Honor smartphone brand. Huawei verified in November that it was divesting Honor to a group of companies to protect the division’s supply chain from the effects of trade restrictions imposed by the United States government.

This separation was intended to insulate Honor from the sanctions impacting Huawei’s operations. However, the TrendForce report notes that “it remains uncertain whether the independent Honor will be able to attract consumers without Huawei’s backing. Furthermore, Huawei and the newly independent Honor will likely find themselves in direct competition, particularly should Huawei’s trade restrictions with the U.S. be lifted in the future.”

A prior TrendForce report, released shortly after the Honor sale, indicated that the transaction, combined with the global chip shortage, would result in Huawei capturing only 4% of the market in 2021, a significant decrease from the 17% it held in 2019 and the estimated 14% in 2020. Apple is expected to gain some market share from Huawei’s premium smartphone offerings, while Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo are also poised to benefit. TrendForce anticipates the newly independent Honor will secure a 2% market share in 2021.