The Station: 2021 Predictions - Part Two

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Greetings to both regular subscribers and newcomers, and welcome to The Station, a newsletter examining both current and developing methods for moving people and goods from one location to another.

In the previous edition, I shared several forecasts for 2021 concerning self-driving car systems and electric vehicles. Today, I will offer my perspectives on additional trends within the broader “future of transportation” landscape, such as ride-sharing services, on-demand delivery solutions, and advancements in vehicle technology.

Please feel free to reach out via email at kirsten.korosec@techcrunch.com with any feedback, critiques, viewpoints, or information you’d like to share. You can also connect with me directly on Twitter — @kirstenkorosec.

Now, let’s proceed with the remaining predictions for 2021.

Delivery

The trend of convenient, on-demand delivery services is poised for continued expansion, even as shoppers increasingly revisit traditional brick-and-mortar stores. This growth will create significant challenges for the entire logistics network. Retailers who achieve the greatest success will be those who have established a variety of methods for getting products into the hands of customers.

Both large national chains and smaller, community-based stores are now recognizing that their physical locations function as integral components of the overall supply chain. We can anticipate a continued emergence of new companies offering platforms designed to streamline inventory management and facilitate efficient delivery to consumers.

The rising consumer demand for delivery services will likely prompt major players like Amazon and Walmart to increase their investments in technological advancements to address these needs. This could involve strategic partnerships or the acquisition of innovative startups. (This extends beyond ongoing research into future technologies such as self-driving vehicle delivery systems.)

Delivery applications, including Uber Eats, DoorDash, and Instacart, will encounter greater examination regarding their employment practices involving gig economy workers, as well as the advantages businesses gain from utilizing these services. This situation could lead local businesses to develop their own internal delivery capabilities. Consequently, there will be increased demand for digital solutions that optimize delivery fleets and provide companies with alternatives to relying on services like Uber, DoorDash, and similar platforms.

Restaurant companies are expected to collaborate in establishing delivery centers utilizing ghost kitchen concepts, a forecast aligning with insights shared by Khaled Naim, CEO of Onfleet, a last-mile delivery management software company. It is reasonable to anticipate that local retailers will pursue similar strategies. 

I anticipate receiving more proposals from businesses marketing curbside pickup management tools and subscription-based delivery services.

In the realm of ride-sharing, shuttle services like Via are expected to maintain their growth trajectory (despite ongoing considerations about shared transportation) and pursue acquisitions to enhance their existing services. Via will likely focus on marketing its platform to municipalities rather than expanding its own operational footprint. Via provides solutions for booking, route planning, passenger and vehicle allocation, customer support, and fleet administration. Furthermore, the company will probably explore opportunities to expand its service offerings to increase its attractiveness.

In-car tech

Several trends established in the recent past are expected to continue shaping the automotive landscape. Vehicle manufacturers are consistently increasing both the size and the resolution of the displays integrated into their infotainment systems. Unfortunately, relatively few are focusing on enhancing the crucial element of these systems: the user interface.

Recent announcements from Envisics, a company specializing in holographic technology, and Mercedes-Benz offer a glimpse into the innovations anticipated for 2021.

Mercedes-Benz revealed its next-generation MBUX Hyperscreen on January 7th. This expansive, curved screen stretches 56 inches across the dashboard. The MBUX Hyperscreen will be available as an option in the 2022 Mercedes EQS, the flagship sedan within the automaker’s electric EQ lineup.

Mercedes-EQ. MBUX Hyperscreen. Image Credits: Mercedes-Benz

I find the user interface particularly interesting, and potentially promising, though I have not yet had the opportunity to evaluate it personally. Mercedes-Benz has prioritized displaying information related to charging, entertainment, phone connectivity, navigation, social media, and even vehicle massage functions directly on the screen. This design eliminates the need to navigate through menus or utilize voice commands to access these features.

The system’s software is designed to learn the driver’s habits and proactively offer relevant prompts, minimizing the need to explore sub-menus. A navigation map remains consistently visible in the center of the display, with controls for phone and entertainment functions—or the most appropriate feature for the current driving situation—located directly below, as described by the automaker.

Concurrently, Envisics announced a collaboration with Panasonic Automotive Systems to jointly develop and bring to market a new generation of head-up displays for cars, trucks, and SUVs.

Envisics’ technology enables head-up displays with enhanced resolution, a broader color spectrum, and larger images that can be seamlessly integrated with the driver’s view of the road. The technology is also capable of projecting information at varying distances simultaneously. According to Jamieson Christmas, the company’s founder, this will initially facilitate relatively straightforward augmented reality applications such as navigation assistance—highlighting the correct lane—and certain safety features.

Image Credits: Envisics

“However, looking ahead to the future of autonomous driving, it opens up a wide range of possibilities, including entertainment and video conferencing,” he stated.

Furthermore, I anticipate increased discussion and potential implementation of driver monitoring systems as automakers introduce more sophisticated driver assistance systems that permit “hands-free” operation under specific circumstances.

It is important to emphasize, however, that a driver monitoring system is only one component of a safe solution. The secure operation of an advanced driver assistance system depends on the driver’s comprehensive understanding of the system’s features and their ability to readily determine when those features are active or inactive. Several current vehicle models, even those with less advanced ADAS versions, struggle to effectively communicate feature status to drivers. My expectation for 2021 and beyond is a concerted effort to address this deficiency.

For those who may have missed last week’s forecasts, here is a summary of my predictions regarding AVs and EVs.

Autonomous vehicles

The trend of companies merging and being acquired, which started in 2020, is predicted to continue throughout the year. This will result in a smaller number of companies actively working to bring self-driving vehicle technology to market in three key sectors: robotaxis, long-haul trucking, and delivery services.

In 2020, Starsky Robotics ceased operations, Uber transferred its autonomous driving division to Aurora, and Nuro, a company focused on autonomous delivery, purchased Ike Robotics. This period of change is still ongoing.

I will be closely monitoring the progress of major companies in the autonomous vehicle space, including Cruise, Motional, Waymo, and Zoox. I am especially interested in observing how Aurora integrates Uber ATG into its existing operations. Additionally, I will be tracking developments at Argo AI, which has been working to incorporate VW’s self-driving subsidiary, Autonomous Intelligent Driving (AID), into its structure.

I anticipate significant developments from Voyage, a company that often receives less attention, including the formation of new partnerships and the implementation of driverless systems.

Autonomous delivery is expected to receive the largest amount of investment, experience further consolidation, and see increased commercial application in 2021. While widespread autonomous delivery won’t become a reality this year, anticipate more trial programs in cities, suburbs, and even rural locations as companies determine the most cost-effective environments and delivery methods – whether through sidewalk robots, specialized vehicles on roads, or drones.

We will likely see new companies entering the market with a regional focus in 2021, and drone delivery services will expand their operational areas within defined geographic boundaries.

I am also keen to see how Postmates’ autonomous robot will be utilized now that Uber has finalized its acquisition of the on-demand delivery service.

Nuro’s second-generation R2 delivery robot. Image credit: Nuro

Companies developing autonomous trucking solutions will discover that managing long-distance logistics is more challenging and costly than initially estimated. While development will continue on Class 8 trucks designed to operate without a driver, expect increased focus on the “middle-mile” logistics sector. This is an area where Gatik AI, a startup, has already achieved some success.

The middle-mile market, involving frequent autonomous truck trips between large distribution centers and local retailers, will grow in importance as online grocery and goods ordering continues to rise. Companies like Amazon, Walmart, and Kroger, with substantial financial resources, are actively seeking faster and more affordable ways to transport merchandise. Expect further investments and potential acquisitions from major retail businesses.

Autonomous vehicle regulations in the United States are poised to evolve in 2021 with the incoming Biden Administration. While immediate changes are unlikely, more significant activity is expected in 2022 and beyond. However, some degree of change is inevitable.

The previous administration adopted a hands-off approach to the development and deployment of autonomous vehicles, favoring voluntary guidelines over mandatory regulations. For example, last month the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration issued a notice clarifying AV policy, which appeared to simplify the path to deployment. (Further details can be found in my December 21 newsletter.)

President-elect Joe Biden has nominated Pete Buttigieg, a former presidential candidate, as the next Secretary of Transportation, a role that includes oversight of the Federal Highway Administration and NHTSA. It is anticipated that Buttigieg will prioritize the development of electric vehicle charging infrastructure. The Biden administration’s approach to automated vehicle technology and advanced driver assistance systems remains less certain.

The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, representing the automotive industry, recently released a four-year plan outlining its desired federal government actions. The group proposed 14 recommendations, including regulatory reforms to enable large-scale AV deployment. Expect the Alliance for Automotive Innovation to advocate for a national AV pilot program and the creation of a new vehicle classification specifically for AVs.

Electric vehicles

Image Credits: Bryce Durbin

Numerous new electric vehicles, originating from both established automotive manufacturers and emerging companies, are scheduled for release in 2021. Models such as the Lucid Air, Rivian R1T and R1S, Audi Q4 etron, and Nissan Ariya are anticipated to become available, alongside increased production volumes for the Ford Mustang Mach-E and VW ID.4.

During the second portion of the year, several electric pickup trucks from Lordstown Motors are also expected to be unveiled, in addition to the initial customer deliveries of the BMW iX and the GMC Hummer EV. The Tesla Cybertruck is not projected to be available until late 2021, and potentially not until 2022.

Within the United States, attention will be focused on potential shifts in federal policies that could incentivize a greater number of consumers to adopt electric vehicles. As reported by Politico, approximately $40 billion in loan authority from the Energy Department, originally allocated under the 2009 stimulus package, remains unused. This funding may play a significant role in the Biden administration’s plans for climate action and infrastructure development. While these funds are likely to be directed towards energy storage and related infrastructure, it is relevant that Jennifer Granholm, formerly the Governor of Michigan, will lead the DOE. Granholm previously participated in the Obama administration’s support of the U.S. automotive industry during the economic downturn.

Electric bikes, mopeds, scooters and even skateboards are projected to see continued expansion in popularity throughout 2021, as individuals seek alternative transportation options to car ownership or traditional public transit.

However, not all businesses in the e-bike and scooter sector will achieve success. Several shared electric scooter companies encountered difficulties or ceased operations in 2020. Others are transitioning to subscription-based service models. Further adjustments and experimentation within this market are anticipated.