Tesla Refutes Elon Musk's Self-Driving Timeline

Discrepancies Between Elon Musk’s Statements and Tesla’s Engineering Reality Regarding Autonomous Driving

A recently surfaced memo indicates a divergence between public statements made by Tesla CEO Elon Musk concerning the progress of the company’s fully autonomous driving system and the actual state of development, as perceived by engineers.

Details from the California DMV Memo

The memo, obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request by Plainsite, suggests that Musk has overstated the capabilities of Tesla’s Autopilot system and the timeline for achieving full autonomy.

Tesla offers a driver assistance system called Autopilot as standard equipment. Owners can also purchase “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) capability for $10,000, with the promise of eventual full autonomous operation.

Despite the availability of FSD, which includes features like Summon and Navigate on Autopilot, Tesla vehicles are currently not self-driving. Navigate on Autopilot provides active guidance on highways, managing lane changes and interchanges.

Autopilot’s Current Level of Automation

According to the memo, Tesla’s Director of Autopilot Software, CJ Moore, informed California regulators that the current system operates at Level 2 automation.

This classification, defined by SAE International, signifies that two primary functions – such as adaptive cruise control and lane keeping – are automated, but a human driver must remain engaged at all times.

While Tesla’s Autopilot and FSD were once considered the most advanced systems available, other automakers are rapidly closing the gap in advanced driver-assistance technology.

The Path to Full Autonomy

Level 4 automation involves the vehicle handling all driving tasks under specific conditions, a goal pursued by companies like Waymo and Cruise. Level 5, the ultimate objective, represents full autonomy in all environments.

The memo highlights a contrast between Moore’s assessment and Musk’s public pronouncements. Specifically, the memo states, “Elon’s tweet does not match engineering reality per CJ.”

Musk’s Public Statements on FSD

Musk has repeatedly provided optimistic updates on FSD’s progress, particularly during earnings calls and on Twitter.

In a January earnings call, he expressed “high confidence” that the vehicle would achieve human-level driving reliability within the year. Similarly, in April 2021, he stated his confidence in completing the development of the system.

Testing and Data Collection

The memo also reveals details about Tesla’s beta testing program for “Navigate on Autopilot on City Streets,” designed to handle urban driving scenarios.

As of March, 824 vehicles were participating in the pilot program, with approximately 750 driven by employees and 74 by non-employees. These vehicles were located across 37 states, with a concentration in California.

Participants had collectively logged over 153,000 miles using the City Streets feature, and Tesla planned to expand the program to around 1,600 vehicles.

Participant Vetting and Monitoring

Tesla is developing a training video for participants and plans to vet new recruits based on insurance telematics data.

The company also tracks “disengagements” – instances where the system fails or is deactivated – to monitor performance. However, it’s important to note that Tesla utilizes public drivers in its beta program, unlike other autonomous vehicle developers who rely solely on trained safety drivers.