Rivian Sales Forecast 2025: Projected 16% Drop

Rivian Adjusts Vehicle Delivery Forecast for 2025

Rivian has revised its projections, now anticipating the delivery of no more than 43,500 electric vehicles by the close of 2025. This represents a decrease of approximately 16% compared to the previous year’s sales figures.

Recent Production and Delivery Data

The company communicated this updated guidance to investors on Thursday, concurrently with the release of its third-quarter production and delivery statistics. Deliveries experienced an increase, reaching 13,201 vehicles, a rise from 10,661 and 8,640 units delivered in the second and first quarters, respectively. A total of 10,720 EVs were also manufactured during the quarter.

This signifies a positive recovery following a slower beginning to the year. However, Rivian has effectively confirmed that the total number of vehicles delivered this year will be lower than both 2024 and 2023, when over 50,000 electric vehicles were distributed.

Challenges Amidst Upcoming Launch

Rivian’s difficulties in expanding sales occur at a crucial juncture for the company. Preparations are underway for the launch of the R2 SUV, intended to be its most accessible and widely-adopted vehicle. The company forecasts the production and sale of hundreds of thousands of these vehicles, and has invested significantly in expanding its manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois, to accommodate their construction.

Furthermore, Rivian has initiated construction of a new factory in Georgia, specifically for the production of the R2 and its compact variant, the R3.

Initially, Rivian expressed optimism about matching 2024 sales, forecasting deliveries between 46,000 and 51,000 vehicles. In 2024, Rivian successfully sold 51,579 vehicles.

Impact of Trade Policies

However, by May, the implementation of evolving trade regulations and tariffs by the Trump administration prompted a downward revision of this estimate, to a range of 40,000 to 46,000 vehicles. Rivian attributed this adjustment to the potential impact of these changes on consumer confidence and demand.

On Thursday, the company further refined this range, narrowing it to between 41,500 and 43,500 vehicles.

Broader EV Market Trends

The electric vehicle sector in the U.S. is currently facing headwinds, particularly with the increasing opposition to EVs and renewable energy from the Trump administration. Many major automakers are responding by delaying or canceling plans for new EV models, and also voicing support for efforts to weaken emissions standards.

Despite these challenges, many of these same automakers experienced a surge in EV sales during the third quarter of this year, as consumers sought to capitalize on the expiring $7,500 federal EV tax credit.

Tax Credit Implications for Rivian

The impending end of the tax credit proved a significant incentive, even contributing to record vehicle deliveries for Tesla. However, Rivian did not benefit from the same surge in credit-driven purchases, as its vehicles were only eligible for the subsidy through leasing arrangements.

CEO Scaringe’s Outlook

RJ Scaringe, Rivian’s CEO, remains optimistic about the company’s prospects in a market without the federal tax credit. In an August interview with InsideEVs, Scaringe suggested that some automakers were previously offering EVs at a loss to acquire regulatory credits, which they could then sell to competitors.

He believes that the removal of the federal subsidy will eliminate this practice. Scaringe stated, “What I think will happen as we play out the rest of the 2020s, like through 2029, 2030, is you’re going to have sort of a vacuum of competition, and the pure-play EV-focused companies — Rivian, Tesla, there’s not very many — because they’re completely and fully focused on electrification, will have the advantage of a pretty thin competitive playing field.”