Reddit Predictions: New Feature Lets Users Bet on Outcomes

Reddit Launches “Predictions” – A New Engagement Feature

Reddit has unveiled a novel method for community participation with the introduction of “Predictions,” a new on-platform feature. Building upon the foundation of Reddit Polls, this tool enables users to forecast outcomes for current events.

Questions can range from sports results – “who will win tomorrow’s game?” – to entertainment predictions – “which character will face a pivotal fate in the upcoming episode?” – and even financial forecasts – “what will be the change in Bitcoin’s price by Monday?”

A New Format for Increased Interaction

This marks the first new posting format Reddit has implemented in almost two years. The company’s stated goal is to boost user engagement by lowering the threshold for contribution.

Some individuals may hesitate to create public posts or participate in extensive discussions, but are more inclined to respond to a simple poll or, now, submit a prediction.

How Predictions Tournaments Work

To utilize the feature within a subreddit, a moderator must first establish a Predictions Tournament. This consists of a series of questions for users to predict the answers to.

Moderators have the flexibility to include as many questions as desired and can continue adding new ones even after the tournament has begun.

Upon joining a Predictions Tournament, each Reddit user is allocated 1,000 tokens. These tokens are provided free of charge, and Reddit confirms there are currently no plans for monetization or future token sales.

However, users will not receive additional tokens during the tournament once their initial 1,000 are depleted. Strategic betting is therefore crucial to maintain participation throughout all predictions.

Token Allocation and Betting Limits

The amount of tokens a user can wager on each question is restricted to a range between 10 and 100, inclusive.

Moderator Control and Tournament Integrity

Moderators are responsible for determining the correct answers to the predictions, thereby controlling the tournament’s outcome and identifying the winners.

Their motivation to ensure accuracy is inherent in their role as community leaders, and is further reinforced by the absence of any personal financial gain.

Furthermore, Reddit emphasizes that the tokens themselves hold no value outside of Prediction Tournaments.

Rewards and Leaderboards

Users who accurately predict outcomes will earn additional tokens proportional to their initial wager.

Successful prediction skills will therefore allow users to increase their betting capacity in future tournaments. They will also ascend the community’s Prediction Tournament leaderboard.

Early Testing and Participation

Reddit conducted preliminary testing of the feature prior to its official release, attracting over 1 million participants in Prediction Tournaments.

Notable tournaments included the Oscar Prediction Tournament on r/movies (100,000 participants), the Azerbaijan Grand Prix Prediction Tournament on r/formula1 (200,000 participants), and the 2020 Eurocup Prediction Tournament on r/soccer (over 300,000 participants).

The Broader Trend of Prediction-Based Engagement

Reddit is not alone in recognizing the potential of predictions as a tool for enhancing user engagement.

Facebook’s NPE Team previously launched Forecast, an application offering similar predictive capabilities, allowing users to speculate on global events like the COVID-19 pandemic and participate in related discussions.

Facebook has since expanded into the fantasy gaming market, focusing on prediction-based games rather than traditional team-building approaches.

Numerous prediction apps are also available on the App Store, often centered around sports. Social media platforms also feature prediction-based filters and games, such as Mammoth Media’s Prediction Master for Snapchat.

Rollout and Community Eligibility

The new feature will be deployed to all communities with at least 10,000 members that are designated as safe for work.