TikTok to Surpass 1.2 Billion Users in 2021 - New Forecast

Forecasts suggest TikTok will maintain its strong growth throughout 2021, with mobile data and analytics company App Annie projecting the short-form video platform will exceed 1 billion monthly active users in the coming year. The updated forecast also examined anticipated trends in mobile advertising expenditure and the expansion of mobile-driven “at-home” activities, such as online meetings and e-commerce.

The most notable prediction from the recent report centers on TikTok’s expansion. The video application has experienced significant gains in popularity, almost tripling its user base since 2018, as App Annie observed. By the third quarter of this year, TikTok had risen to become the second-highest-grossing non-gaming application in terms of consumer spending, achieving this through a diverse range of income sources, including advertising and the sale of virtual gifts used to support content creators.

App Annie anticipates that in 2021, TikTok will not only reach the 1 billion monthly active user (MAU) level, joining platforms like Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp, YouTube, and WeChat—but will surpass it, achieving an average of 1.2 billion MAU.

This expansion is particularly noteworthy considering TikTok remains unavailable in India, one of the world’s largest mobile markets.

The future of the social video app in the United States will depend on how the incoming Biden administration addresses the TikTok ban initiated under the Trump administration. (Early indications suggest a similar stance may be maintained.)

App Annie also forecasts continued growth in “at-home” activities driven by mobile usage in 2021. Despite the development of a potential COVID-19 vaccine, a complete return to pre-pandemic routines is unlikely. The pandemic has simply accelerated existing trends.

The report estimates that total time spent within key “at-home” categories—including remote work and education applications, e-commerce, mobile financial applications, and at-home fitness applications—will exceed 1.3 trillion hours on Android devices in 2021.

Specifically, remote business applications, such as Zoom, are projected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 57%, while remote learning applications are expected to grow by 62%. Total usage time in mobile banking and finance applications will surpass 31 billion hours annually in 2021, representing a four-year CAGR of 35%. Growth is also anticipated in the fitness and e-commerce sectors, with increases of +23% and +40%, respectively.

Furthermore, the firm predicts that U.S. consumers will install up to 85% more video streaming applications in 2021 compared to levels seen before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mobile advertising expenditure is expected to reach $290 billion in 2021, driven in part by robust mobile commerce growth and a continuing shift from traditional advertising to digital channels.

“The U.S. presidential election contributed to increased mobile ad spending in the latter half of 2020, and App Annie anticipates this trend will continue into 2021,” the firm stated. “The consumer move towards mobile is not a temporary phenomenon—COVID-19 has accelerated habits that were already developing,” the company added.