Micromobility in 2022: A Tech-Focused Review

The Rise of Micromobility: A 2022 Outlook

The year 2021 marked a significant turning point for micromobility, solidifying its position as a viable transportation solution and increasingly integrated lifestyle choice.

The expansion of shared micromobility options, coupled with concerns surrounding public transportation during the COVID-19 pandemic, contributed to the wider acceptance of small electric vehicles.

E-Bike Sales Surge in 2021

This shift was particularly evident in the surge of e-bike sales, which experienced a remarkable 240% growth rate over the year preceding July 2021.

As a result of this evolving landscape, urban planning began to adapt, with cities implementing infrastructure projects that would have seemed improbable just ten years prior – Paris being a prime example.

Micromobility and Emissions Reduction

2021 also witnessed growing public discourse regarding the positive environmental impact of micromobility, specifically its potential for emissions reduction.

It is widely acknowledged that this impact surpasses that of the increasing adoption of electric cars.

Shared Micromobility Companies Optimize Operations

Shared micromobility providers capitalized on this changing public perception, leveraging their established market presence to enhance operational efficiency.

These companies also focused on refining the quality and performance of their e-scooters and e-bikes.

Looking Ahead: Micromobility Predictions for 2022

With the foundations for future growth firmly established, let's explore the key predictions shaping the micromobility sector in 2022.

These forecasts consider the momentum gained in 2021 and anticipate further developments in technology, infrastructure, and consumer behavior.

The Growing Popularity of E-bikes

The increasing adoption of e-bikes is projected to persist throughout 2022. This growth is particularly noticeable in nations like the United States, where financial incentives of up to $900 are now available towards the cost of a new e-bike.

However, the surge in demand isn't limited to individual buyers. Tony Ho, Vice President of Global Business Development at Segway, reports a significant rise in e-bike orders from companies operating in the micromobility sector.

Segway's Role in the Micromobility Market

Segway has established itself as a key supplier of both e-scooters and e-bikes to major players in the shared micromobility industry, including prominent companies like Lime and Bird.

According to Ho, Lime initially focused on bike-sharing but experienced limited success until they incorporated e-scooters into their offerings. This shift was driven by the lower cost and simpler deployment of scooters.

“The initial focus on scooters was partly due to their affordability and ease of implementation,” Ho explained to TechCrunch. “Currently, e-bikes are gaining considerable momentum, and we are observing a more balanced order distribution, with a substantial increase in e-bike orders for shared programs.”

For municipalities, integrating e-bikes presents a logical progression, building upon existing bicycle-sharing infrastructure.

• E-bike subsidies are now available in the U.S., up to $900.
• Demand from micromobility companies is increasing significantly.
• Segway supplies e-bikes and e-scooters to Lime and Bird.

The trend suggests a future where e-bikes play an increasingly prominent role in urban transportation solutions.

The Decline of Venture Capital Funding in the Micro-Mobility Sector

Several prominent companies, including Bird and Helbiz, have completed initial public offerings (IPOs). Lime has also indicated plans for an IPO in the coming year.

This, coupled with a general trend of consolidation, has resulted in a market dominated by a limited number of major players.

Consequently, the influx of venture capital funding and the emergence of new competitors are diminishing, suggesting a period of market maturation is underway.

Shifting Investor Focus

According to Ho, investor attention has shifted towards alternative ventures. An example cited is the development of sidewalk delivery robots, such as those from Coco.

Significant capital investment remains a prerequisite for entering the micro-mobility market.

Smaller companies now face increased challenges, particularly due to the financial burdens associated with city licensing fees and insurance requirements.

Ho believes that only those businesses that successfully navigated previous market difficulties are likely to maintain a presence in the industry.

Strategies for Sustainability and Compliance

Companies that are continuing operations are prioritizing cost reduction and operational efficiency.

A focus on sustainability is also becoming increasingly important.

Furthermore, adherence to local city regulations is a key area of emphasis for these businesses.

Compliance with city rules is no longer optional, but a necessity for continued operation.

Potential Re-entry of Ride-Share Companies into the Micromobility Market

According to Ho, there's a growing indication that numerous companies are revisiting their involvement in micromobility. This resurgence in interest suggests that as the pandemic subsides, micromobility solutions are gaining prominence in corporate strategies.

Specifically, Ho noted the possibility of major players, including ride-sharing giants, re-entering the market. This shift indicates a potential change in direction for these companies.

Past Retreats from the Micromobility Sector

The micromobility industry experienced significant challenges during the 2020 pandemic lockdowns. As a result, several companies scaled back or exited the sector.

Uber, for instance, divested its micromobility subsidiary, Jump, to Lime, and subsequently increased integration between the two entities. Similarly, Lyft discontinued a number of its initial e-scooter programs in May of the previous year.

Possible Market Re-engagement

However, if Ho’s assessment proves accurate, both Uber and Lyft may be considering a return to the micromobility space. This potential re-entry could be motivated by a desire to reclaim lost market share.

The timing of this potential return is crucial, as these companies aim to re-establish a foothold before the market becomes fully dominated by other providers.

The Increasing Integration of AI and Enhanced Vehicle Intelligence

Urban areas frequently express dissatisfaction with the practice of scooter operation and parking on sidewalks. This concern has spurred innovation, leading to the development of remarkably intelligent scooters. Several companies, including Spin, Helbiz, Beam, and Voi, are currently evaluating camera-based technologies from developers like Drover AI and Luna.

These systems are designed to identify instances of sidewalk riding or potential pedestrian collisions, and possess the ability to halt rides in real-time. Furthermore, Superpedestrian and Bird are employing precise location-based technologies to implement comparable rider-assistance features.

As companies refine cost-effectiveness and municipalities recognize the benefits of this technology, its adoption is expected to become increasingly widespread.

Expanding ADAS Systems to Micromobility

Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADAS) for micromobility will not be limited to shared services. Companies such as Streetlogic and Terranet are actively developing computer vision systems aimed at enhancing the safety of e-bike riders in the consumer market.

These systems function by identifying potential hazards and issuing collision warnings, thereby providing increased security and reassurance to individuals who are choosing e-bikes as an alternative to car travel.

Data Monetization Opportunities

The inclusion of additional sensors on micromobility vehicles also presents opportunities for companies to monetize collected data, according to Horace Dediu, an industry analyst credited with popularizing the term “micromobility.”

“An increase in sensing capabilities is anticipated, essentially resulting in widespread use of dash cams and extensive imaging,” Dediu explained to TechCrunch. “The implementation of these technologies in automobiles is already underway, but micromobility offers a faster rollout, with the potential to deploy 100 million vehicles with relatively modest investment.”

City-Scale Imaging and Data Sharing

By integrating cameras on the front and rear of micromobility vehicles, companies can effectively map cities, similar to the function of current dash cam technology, Dediu suggests. Given the existing ability to detect sidewalks and pedestrian zones, these systems could also identify road conditions.

This data could be shared with cities to inform road maintenance efforts, or sold to mapping companies like Google to improve global mapping accuracy.

Potential for Integrated Services

Considering the current capabilities of micromobility vehicles, such as torque sensors that measure rider input, Dediu anticipates the emergence of services akin to “Peloton-like” offerings, integrated with wearable technology.

Micromobility's Convergence with the Metaverse

Significant investment, totaling billions of dollars, has been channeled by companies like Meta (formerly Facebook), Microsoft, and Apple into exploring methods for interacting with users utilizing head-mounted devices, as noted by Dediu.

Concurrently, the micromobility sector is primarily focused on fundamental safety measures, such as increasing helmet usage.

Dediu observed a compelling synergy between these two trends, proposing the development of smart helmets. He reasoned that if headgear is required, it should be designed to be engaging and desirable.

The Potential of Smart Helmets

A helmet equipped with an augmented reality visor has the capacity to enhance rider awareness of their environment, potentially improving safety while navigating urban landscapes.

Furthermore, Dediu suggests that such technology could stimulate outdoor activity and unlock novel experiences for users.

A Natural Partnership

“Micromobility and the metaverse represent a uniquely compatible pairing,” Dediu stated. “It centers around directing one’s gaze upwards.”

He contrasts this with the isolating effect of in-car augmented reality, which tends to focus attention downwards.

The core question, according to Dediu, is whether individuals prefer an outward-looking or inward-looking experience: “Would you rather look up or look down?”

Future Outlook

While this integration may not fully materialize within 2022, Dediu confidently predicts its eventual realization in various forms over the coming years.

Evolving Designs in Micromobility

A common challenge for daily commuters utilizing scooters, e-bikes, or mopeds centers around inclement weather. To address this and broaden application possibilities, the micromobility sector may witness the introduction of more robust, enclosed designs for both personal ownership and shared mobility services. This perspective comes from Oliver Bruce, a strategic advisor, angel investor, and co-host of the Micromobility Podcast alongside Horace Dediu.

Emerging Vehicle Concepts

Several companies are actively developing innovative electric vehicle designs. Arcimoto, following its acquisition of Tilting Motor Works, and Nimbus are both focused on tilting three-wheeled electric vehicles. These are anticipated to be available or nearing market release in 2022, as noted by Bruce.

The Need for Rapid EV Adoption

Achieving ambitious climate objectives, such as those discussed at COP26, necessitates a swift expansion of electric vehicle availability. Bruce emphasized to TechCrunch that simply increasing production of current electric vehicle models presents significant hurdles.

“Current manufacturing capabilities are insufficient to meet the demands of a rapid transition to electric vehicles,” Bruce stated. “Scaling production with existing designs proves to be a considerable challenge.”

Expanding the Scope of Electric Vehicles

The development of new form factors is crucial for accelerating the adoption of electric transportation. Electric vehicles need to be more versatile and weather-resistant to become a viable option for a wider range of users and conditions.

These heavier-duty designs represent a potential solution, offering increased practicality and encouraging a shift away from traditional gasoline-powered vehicles.

Micromobility's Growing Role in Public Transportation

Bruce predicts a shift in 2022, with the integration of shared rides into public transport ticketing systems.

He envisions a scenario where commuters can seamlessly transition from public transit to micromobility options like e-bikes, with costs being cross-subsidized.

Factors Driving Integration

This integration is anticipated to be spurred by increased infrastructure investments, particularly the expansion of bike lanes in cities globally, especially within Europe.

A key factor will also be the ability of micromobility companies to significantly reduce the per-mile cost of vehicle maintenance and operation.

Economic Viability and Implementation

As operational costs decrease, it will become economically feasible for operators to offer bulk kilometers to transport agencies.

Transport agencies will then be able to enable scooter unlocks using existing metro cards or mobile applications.

Consequently, select cities worldwide are expected to incorporate micromobility options directly into their public transport systems.

This will provide commuters with a more flexible and interconnected transportation experience.

Enhanced Integration with Mapping Services

According to Dediu, 2022, or potentially the following year, is poised to be a pivotal moment for software development within the transportation sector.

Currently, applications focused on transit planning and mapping, such as Google Maps and Moovit, are beginning to incorporate micromobility choices. This provides users with a wider array of transportation methods to reach their desired locations.

This integration is expected to evolve significantly, transforming Maps into a comprehensive search engine. Users will be able to quickly identify the most efficient transport options available.

Dediu explained that presently, a request for travel from point A to point B typically yields three or four potential solutions, without a competitive bidding process.

He envisions a future where users are presented with fifteen or more bids, effectively creating an auction for each ride request, mirroring the functionality of Google Search. He expressed surprise that this system isn't yet commonplace.

A key obstacle to this advancement is the lack of seamless connectivity. The necessary Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) for effective interaction are still under development.

Once these APIs are established, Dediu anticipates a substantial increase in opportunities for shared mobility operators to participate in Google Maps’ platform. This, in turn, should generate significant revenue for Google through micromobility services.

Ultimately, the monetization of micromobility will be driven by enhanced discoverability within these platforms.