Smartphone Shipments to Rebound: 11% Growth Expected in 2024

Mobile Phone Sales: Recovery and Growth in 2021

Similar to many other sectors, the mobile phone industry experienced a substantial downturn in 2020. A 10.5% decrease in sales was recorded for the year, initially due to disruptions in the supply chain caused by COVID-19, and subsequently, a reduction in consumer spending on new devices.

This decline followed a period of challenges for manufacturers, but the impact of 2020 was notably more severe.

Gartner's Forecast for 2021

Recent data released by Gartner indicates a recovery to levels seen before 2020. The firm predicts a global shipment volume of 1.5 billion devices for 2021, representing an overall increase of 11.4%.

Signs of this recovery were already evident in the fourth quarter of the previous year, as the rate of decline slowed, largely driven by a record-breaking quarter for iPhone sales.

The Potential for an "Apple Supercycle"

This situation suggests the beginning of a “supercycle” for Apple, created by a confluence of favorable factors. Over the past few years, consumers have extended the duration between upgrades.

This was influenced by rising device costs, less impactful new features, and the satisfactory performance of their current devices, disrupting the typical two to three-year upgrade cycle.

5G and the Impact of the Pandemic

Analysts initially identified 5G technology as a key driver for revitalizing sales figures in early 2020. However, the global pandemic significantly altered these expectations.

Interestingly, the delay in the iPhone’s release due to COVID-19 may have ultimately contributed to a particularly strong quarter for the company, coinciding with the holiday shopping season and the introduction of vaccines signaling a potential return to normalcy.

Continued 5G Adoption and Market Trends

The anticipated boost from 5G will continue throughout 2021, according to the new projections, alongside efforts to make next-generation wireless technology more affordable.

“The increasing availability of 5G networks, combined with a wider selection of 5G smartphones priced from $200, will stimulate demand in established markets and China,” Gartner observes.

Demand in developing nations will be fueled by consumers seeking smartphones with improved specifications, with 5G connectivity as a desirable, though not necessarily essential, feature.

Gartner forecasts that 5G smartphone sales will reach 539 million units globally in 2021, accounting for 35% of all smartphone sales that year.