Humanoid Robot Bubble: Expert Predicts Burst

A Critical Assessment of Humanoid Robotics Investment

Rodney Brooks, a highly respected figure in robotics and co-founder of iRobot, is issuing a strong caution to investors. He believes substantial funds are being misallocated towards humanoid robot startups.

Brooks expresses particular skepticism regarding companies such as Tesla and Figure AI. These firms are attempting to impart dexterity to robots by utilizing video demonstrations of human actions, a strategy he deems “pure fantasy thinking” in a recent publication.

The Complexity of Human Touch

A core challenge lies in replicating the intricacies of the human hand. Human hands possess approximately 17,000 specialized touch receptors, a level of sophistication currently unattainable by robotic systems.

While machine learning has revolutionized fields like speech and image recognition, these advancements were built upon established data capture technologies. “We don’t have such a tradition for touch data,” Brooks emphasizes, highlighting a significant gap in robotic development.

Safety Concerns and Energy Dynamics

Safety is another paramount concern. Humanoid robots, designed to walk, require considerable energy to maintain balance. A fall can be hazardous due to the energy involved.

The laws of physics dictate that a robot double the size of current models would possess eight times the potential for harmful energy release upon impact.

The Future of Robotics: Beyond Humanoid Form

Brooks forecasts that, within the next 15 years, truly successful “humanoid” robots will deviate significantly from the human form. He anticipates designs incorporating wheels, multiple arms, and specialized sensors.

He is convinced that current investments are primarily funding costly experiments that are unlikely to achieve scalability for mass production.

AI's Limitations and Perceived Benefits

This isn't the first instance of Brooks tempering enthusiasm surrounding ambitious technological promises. He previously discussed with TechCrunch the overestimation of generative AI’s capabilities and its potential to increase workload in certain scenarios.

A study by the nonprofit METR revealed that developers using AI tools actually took 19% longer to complete tasks, despite perceiving a 20% speed increase.

AI as an Existential Threat?

Brooks has consistently challenged the notion of AI posing an existential threat, a concern voiced by figures like Elon Musk. Discussions on this topic with TechCrunch date back to 2017, when the technological landscape, while different, shared similarities with the present.

Data, Big Tech, and Robotics

Brooks observed an emerging trend of companies specializing in machine learning datasets, a trend that has continued to grow. He also questioned whether Big Tech’s data dominance would inevitably lead to their success in robotics.

However, leading robotics companies are increasingly aligning with these tech giants.

Partnerships and Funding

Apptronik, a humanoid robot manufacturer with nearly $450 million in funding, counts Google as an investor and collaborates with Google’s DeepMind robotics team.

Figure, backed by Microsoft and the OpenAI Startup Fund, initially partnered with OpenAI to integrate its research with Figure’s robotics hardware and software. This partnership dissolved in March 2024, with FigureAI claiming a “major breakthrough” in its independent AI development.