Facebook Glasses vs. Google Glass: Can Meta Succeed?

Facebook's Smart Glasses: Learning from Google Glass's Past

Facebook has recently unveiled its much-awaited smart glasses, capable of recording video from the wearer's point of view. While initial reactions have been mixed, a strategic decision made by Facebook during the launch process significantly increases the likelihood of success, differentiating it from the fate of Google Glass.

An Effectual Launch Strategy

Drawing inspiration from established business principles, Facebook employed an effectual approach to its product launch by collaborating with Ray-Ban. This is a valuable lesson for all product managers to consider.

The Google Glass Experience: A Cautionary Tale

To fully appreciate Facebook’s strategy, it’s important to revisit the launch of Google Glass in 2011. Initially released as a prototype to a select group of users, participants paid $1,500 for the opportunity to experience what felt like a glimpse into the future.

Despite being recognized by Time Magazine as one of the best inventions of the year, Google Glass was plagued with issues and remained an incomplete product. A primary reason for its failure was the lack of a clearly defined use case; it wasn't immediately obvious what people would actually do with the device.

Design and Marketing Challenges

The design of Google Glass was developed internally, and its marketing relied heavily on unintentional public relations, largely driven by co-founder Sergey Brin’s public appearances wearing the device. Google essentially capitalized on its existing success, presenting a novel product that seemed inevitable, yet lacked a concrete purpose.

Facebook's Approach: Leveraging an Established Brand

Earlier this month, Facebook introduced its wearable sunglasses, immediately drawing comparisons to Google Glass. The central question now is whether Facebook will avoid the same pitfalls. The decision to partner with Ray-Ban, utilizing the iconic Wayfarer design, is a key factor likely to contribute to Facebook’s success.

Navigating Uncertainty in Innovation

As Facebook evolves beyond its initial startup phase, it must continually explore innovative avenues to prevent its platforms from becoming obsolete. This necessitates navigating situations that are not merely risky, but fundamentally unknowable.

Risk vs. Uncertainty: The Knightian Perspective

Facebook, like many tech companies, faces what is known as Knightian uncertainty. Frank Knight’s 1921 research highlighted the distinction between risk and uncertainty. For major technology firms, risk involves managing revenue to ensure continued growth, such as maintaining Facebook’s ad revenue advantage over Google.

Because of established revenue patterns, predictions can be made with reasonable accuracy. Predictive tools are valuable in these scenarios and inform decision-making.

The Unpredictability of New Product Demand

However, predicting the success of Facebook’s smart glasses is a different challenge altogether. What historical data can be used? Will demand mirror the initial response to the Apple Watch, or will it resemble the fate of Microsoft’s Zune? The demand for this product is inherently unknowable, rendering prediction largely ineffective – this is Knightian uncertainty.

Why Facebook Has a Better Chance

Facebook’s improved prospects stem from its adoption of a key entrepreneurial method. By partnering with Ray-Ban, Facebook employed an effectual approach to its launch.

Leveraging Existing Certainties

Instead of attempting to invent a completely new design, Facebook leveraged an existing, well-established design with inherent certainties. Collaboration is crucial for gaining control over outcomes when predictive tools are unreliable. Effectuation prioritizes leveraging controllable aspects.

This involves starting with existing resources – skills, knowledge, and networks. Rather than predicting consumer preferences or mastering marketing independently, Facebook capitalized on Ray-Ban’s expertise as the market leader.

Navigating the Unknown Through Collaboration

Facebook progressed through the unknowable by collaborating with a trusted partner to address a key uncertainty surrounding its new product. This strategic decision alone significantly enhances its chances of success.

The Inherent Uncertainty of Innovation

Ultimately, new consumer product innovations are inherently uncertain, and most will inevitably fail. Even with Ray-Ban’s partnership, numerous other factors could lead to failure. However, by embracing a key entrepreneurial approach to its product launch, Facebook has demonstrably improved its odds.