Tesla 2024: Elon Musk's Promises - Robotaxis & Optimus Bots

Elon Musk's 2024: Politics, Promises, and Tesla

2024 proved to be a significant year for Elon Musk, marked by a notable involvement in right-wing political circles. He actively utilized his X social media platform and substantial influence in an effort to support Donald Trump's presidential campaign.

Setting aside the political aspects, it is important to consider another consistent element of Musk’s activities: the making of future projections for Tesla.

A History of Unmet Expectations

Musk’s pronouncements – and the subsequent failure to meet stated timelines – have become a defining characteristic of the Tesla narrative. These predictions have consistently been ambitious, captivating investors and contributing to the company’s high valuation, which once reached $1.3 trillion.

For example, in 2015, he predicted that Tesla vehicles would achieve full self-driving capability within two years. Further projections included enabling cross-country driverless journeys by the end of 2017, and launching a large-scale driverless ride-hailing network by 2020.

Despite Tesla’s success in manufacturing and distributing millions of electric vehicles, these specific promises, along with numerous others, have not materialized.

Promises Made in 2024

However, this track record hasn't deterred Musk from continuing to make forward-looking statements regarding Tesla in 2024. A review of these commitments and their anticipated fulfillment dates follows.

Here's a summary of the pledges made and the timelines provided by Musk for their realization.

The $25,000 EV

Throughout 2024, Elon Musk announced intentions to launch a $25,000 electric vehicle. However, these plans were abandoned in April, with a shift in focus towards developing a robotaxi prototype. This strategic redirection subsequently resulted in significant workforce reductions as Tesla transitioned into its “next phase of growth.”

Musk’s stance on the availability of an affordable EV has been inconsistent. During Tesla’s Q3 earnings conference, he characterized the concept of manufacturing a $25,000 car equipped with traditional steering and pedals as unproductive and illogical.

He stated that the sole vehicle he would offer at that price level would be the Cybercab. An analyst inquired about the possibility of Tesla producing a more budget-friendly EV, distinct from the Cybercab.

Musk responded by asserting that all future Tesla vehicles will be designed for autonomous operation. He further claimed that a substantial proportion of the 7 million vehicles Tesla has produced to date possess the capability for autonomy.

Currently, Tesla is reportedly manufacturing approximately 35,000 vehicles per week with autonomous features. It’s important to note that Musk’s definition of autonomy appears to be expansive, as Tesla does not yet offer vehicles that can be safely operated without human driver intervention.

(Historical Context: In 2016, Musk initially declared on Tesla’s website – in a now-removed statement – that all vehicles then in production were equipped with the necessary hardware for full self-driving capabilities. He indicated that only a software update would be required to transform standard Teslas into autonomous cars. This prediction did not materialize, necessitating hardware upgrades for older models.)

During the earnings call, Musk also projected a vehicle growth rate of 20% to 30% in 2025. This anticipated growth is attributed to the introduction of more affordable vehicles and the advancement of autonomous technology.

Cybercab Production Targeted for 2025 or 2026

During an event in Hollywood in October, Tesla showcased 20 Cybercab prototypes. Elon Musk used this occasion to outline plans for these vehicles and Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software.

FSD represents Tesla’s sophisticated driver assistance system. It’s capable of executing numerous automated driving functions, but a human driver must remain alert and prepared to assume control when necessary.

Musk communicated to potential customers the future availability of a robotaxi. This vehicle, envisioned as a two-door, two-seat design, would lack traditional steering wheels and pedals.

The anticipated price point for this robotaxi is projected to be under $30,000. Furthermore, Musk indicated that the operational expenses of the Cybercab are expected to decrease to just $0.20 per mile over time.

Tesla intends to initiate production of these specifically designed autonomous vehicles (AVs) either in 2025 or 2026.

(Looking Back: In 2022, Musk predicted mass production of robotaxis by 2024. Prior to this, in 2019, he forecasted one million robotaxis operating on roadways by 2020. Since 2016, Musk has consistently suggested that Tesla will achieve full self-driving capabilities “next year”.)

Weeks following the unveiling, during Tesla’s third-quarter earnings discussion, Musk stated that volume production is expected to be reached in 2026.

He also conveyed the company’s ambition to eventually produce at least 2 million Cybercab units annually.

Existing federal regulations, mandating specific safety features like manual controls in vehicles, may present challenges to Tesla’s plans for large-scale Cybercab production.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has recently proposed new regulations. These rules aim to expedite exemptions for vehicles of this nature, but would necessitate companies to share more data with the agency, including crash reports.

Currently, automakers are obligated to report crashes when Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) or autonomous driving technology is engaged.

Musk has previously voiced opposition to this regulation. Reports suggest that President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team is considering its revocation.

Robovan Development Progress

Tesla unveiled a Robovan prototype to investors alongside the presentation of their robotaxi. While Elon Musk refrained from detailing specific strategies for the vehicle at that time, a subsequent post on X in November confirmed that development of the Robovan is currently underway, alongside other undisclosed projects.

Historical Context

Previous statements from Musk in 2016 indicated an intention to begin production of a minibus, leveraging the Model X chassis. The anticipated timeframe for this project was estimated at two to three years.

The current confirmation of the Robovan’s development suggests a renewed focus on this segment of the electric vehicle market.

Further details regarding the Robovan’s specifications and intended applications are still forthcoming from Tesla.

“Unsupervised FSD” and autonomous ride-hail in 2025

During the event, Elon Musk also projected that owners of the Model 3 and Model Y vehicles would gain access to an “unsupervised” iteration of FSD in California and Texas by 2025.

The precise meaning of “unsupervised” FSD, as articulated by Musk, remains somewhat ambiguous. Currently, Tesla’s FSD capability does not represent full autonomy. To avoid misinterpretations, Tesla has since rebranded the software as “supervised FSD.”

The removal of supervision could signify Tesla’s intention to eliminate the necessity for a driver altogether. Alternatively, it might indicate plans to introduce a Level 3 autonomous system, enabling drivers to operate hands-free and eyes-off for specific segments of their journeys.

Musk further elaborated on the prospect of unsupervised FSD during Tesla’s third-quarter earnings conference. He expressed his aspiration to initiate a service allowing individuals to summon self-driving Teslas via a ride-hailing platform in California and Texas during 2025.

He also stated that Tesla had commenced testing this service within the Bay Area, utilizing its own employees.

(Context:) California mandates various levels of permits for the testing and deployment of autonomous vehicles. Tesla has maintained a permit for AV testing with a safety driver since 2015. However, the Department of Motor Vehicles confirmed to TechCrunch in October that Tesla’s last reported utilization of this permit occurred in 2019.

The method of launching this ride-hail service remains unclear. Will Tesla employ its dedicated robotaxis, or leverage the existing fleet of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles owned by customers?

Tesla’s first-quarter earnings presentation showcased a conceptual design of a future Tesla ride-hail application. For years, the company has hinted at establishing a ride-hailing network comprised of Teslas upgraded to achieve full autonomous driving capabilities.

This concept mirrors the functionality of Uber, but with Tesla owners contributing their appropriately equipped, self-driving vehicles to the automaker’s ride-hailing app to generate supplemental income during periods of non-use. Tesla anticipates retaining 25% to 30% of the generated revenue.

Furthermore, during Tesla’s first-quarter earnings call, Musk revealed ongoing discussions with a “major automaker” regarding the potential licensing of FSD. As of now, no definitive agreements have been publicly announced.

Optimus Robots Projected to Exceed 1,000 Units at Tesla by 2025

Elon Musk has articulated ambitious goals concerning the development of Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot. During the annual shareholder meeting, a commitment was made to initiate “limited production” of the Optimus in the coming year.

It is anticipated that by 2025, Tesla will have “over 1,000, potentially a few thousand” Optimus robots integrated into its operations. Furthermore, a sales launch is projected for 2026.

In a statement shared on X, the Tesla executive indicated an expectation of increased Optimus bot availability for external companies by 2026.

The nature of the robots’ operation – whether fully autonomous or remotely operated – remains unspecified. This is similar to the control method demonstrated during the October robotaxi unveiling.

Current Limitations in Robotics

While advancements in humanoid robotics are enabling autonomous completion of defined tasks, widespread, generalized robotics faces hurdles. A primary challenge is the current scarcity of sufficient training data, as noted by numerous experts.

Generalized robotics capabilities are still considered to be several years away from full realization.

Potential Market Impact

Beyond production timelines, Musk has also suggested that Optimus could significantly elevate Tesla’s market capitalization. He predicts a potential rise to $25 trillion.

This figure represents approximately seven times the combined current market values of both Apple and Nvidia.

As of the end of December, Tesla’s market cap stood at approximately $1.42 trillion. This reflects a substantial increase of nearly 160% from the $550 billion valuation prior to the 2016 presidential election.

For inquiries or to share additional information, please contact rebecca.bellan@techcrunch.com.