Elon Musk's Vegas Loop: Early Data Shows Slow Progress

The Las Vegas Convention Center Loop: Performance vs. Promises

Initial projections for The Boring Company’s Las Vegas Convention Center (LVCC) Loop, as presented by LVCVA CEO Steve Hill, estimated a travel time of under two minutes between the campus’s furthest stations.

Guaranteed Performance and Initial Claims

According to reports from the Las Vegas Review Journal in June 2019, Hill stated that a full refund would be issued if the system failed to meet expectations.

This two-minute timeframe was consistently communicated to the media as recently as April, as evidenced by email correspondence between a TBC representative and the LVCVA. These communications were obtained through a public records request, comprising over 5,000 pages of documentation.

Actual Travel Times Reveal Discrepancies

However, current data suggests the two-minute goal remains unrealized.

Analysis of trip reports from the same records request indicates that, during its initial six weeks of operation, Tesla vehicles within the LVCC Loop averaged nearly four minutes for a complete system traversal.

The data, encompassing over 30,000 rides and 75,000 passengers, demonstrates that no single day achieved an average trip time below three minutes. On one occasion, the average reached five minutes. (TechCrunch’s analysis excluded days with fewer than 1,000 total passengers.)

Potential Financial Implications

While a few minutes’ delay may not significantly impact individual convention attendees, it could lead to substantial financial penalties for TBC if ridership targets are not met during large events like CES.

This discrepancy also raises concerns regarding TBC’s plans for a larger, public Loop network in Las Vegas, which has recently received approval.

Ultimately, the LVCC Loop’s performance will be a key indicator of whether Musk’s subterranean transportation system is a viable solution for urban mobility, or simply a novelty experience.

A digital map is shown in the Central Station during a media preview of the Las Vegas Convention Center Loop on April 9, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Image Credits: Getty Images / Ethan Miller

Expansion Plans and Projected Travel Times

The proposed Vegas Loop system aims to connect 51 stations across approximately 29 miles of tunnels, linking major tourist destinations.

TBC’s project page for the Vegas Loop estimates a four-minute journey from the city’s NFL stadium to the Convention Center, despite the distance being over four times greater than the current LVCC Loop length.

Capacity Concerns and Passenger Numbers

Real-world data also casts doubt on the LVCC Loop’s ability to achieve its stated capacity of 4,400 attendees per hour.

TBC briefly reached this number during a demonstration in May by accommodating three riders (without luggage) in each of the 62 Tesla Model 3, X, and Y vehicles.

However, between its opening to convention attendees in early June and mid-July, an average of only two passengers utilized each Loop vehicle.

Contractual Penalties and Revenue

A 2019 contract stipulates a $300,000 penalty for each major convention where TBC fails to transport at least 4,000 people per hour.

This penalty could significantly affect the Loop’s financial viability, as it generated only $230,500 in revenue during its first month of operation in June. (TBC also receives a $167,000 monthly management fee, irrespective of vehicle usage.)

Factors Affecting Ridership

By mid-July, the highest hourly passenger count recorded was 1,355.

This lower-than-expected number is partly attributable to the timing of conventions, as the LVCC typically does not host its largest events during the intense Nevada summer heat.

During a beauty convention in June, a Loop operations engineer reported to the LVCVA: “I trimmed back the [number of] cars now because we are seeing a super low volume of passengers.” On some evenings, the system was closed early due to a complete lack of riders for 15-minute periods.

Service Levels and Operational Capacity

The Loop operates with three distinct service levels:

• Level 2: Five cars, no station attendants – utilized when no conventions are active.
• Level 3: 23 vehicles – capable of handling up to 20,000 visitors.
• Level 4: 30 to 62 Teslas – reserved for the largest events.

Evaluating the Performance of the Loop System

A significant evaluation of the system’s capabilities is anticipated during the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in January, an event known to draw as many as 185,000 visitors. The Loop recently received authorization to operate a fleet of 70 vehicles, a development previously reported by TechCrunch in August.

However, to avoid incurring capacity-related penalties, the system will need to either reduce the duration of individual trips or successfully encourage a minimum of three passengers per vehicle. Furthermore, minimizing the number of unoccupied vehicles – often referred to as “ghost cars” – will be crucial, as these constituted the majority of trips during the Loop’s initial launch in early June.

Tunnel Capacity Constraints

The existing tunnel infrastructure appears to have limited capacity for expansion. Observations made by a city inspector during the 70-vehicle trial revealed instances of vehicles entering and exiting stations with intervals as short as one to two seconds.

This is a concern, as the Loop’s safety assessments rely on maintaining a six-second gap, or headway, between each vehicle to ensure operational safety.

Key challenges for the Loop include optimizing passenger loads and minimizing empty vehicle trips to ensure efficient and safe operation, particularly during high-demand events like CES.

Positive Feedback on the Loop System

Initial reports indicate a favorable reception of the Loop among its users. Seth Hooper, Director of Loop Operations, noted in late June that the system is “clearly their preferred method of travel around the campus,” with customer satisfaction being high. Wait times are generally reported as being approximately two minutes or less, even during peak usage periods.

The popularity of the multi-colored tunnel lighting, initially activated for brief intervals, has led to its near-constant illumination due to direct requests from riders.

Challenges and Incidents

Despite its success, the Loop has faced challenges related to unauthorized access. Beyond the incident reported by TechCrunch in October involving an unauthorized vehicle, personnel from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) have repeatedly attempted to access the system for observation.

Hooper specifically identified LVCVA carts as being the primary source of these unauthorized entries.

An unusual incident also occurred in late July when two TBC employees attempted a rescue of a kitten that had fallen into a storm drain adjacent to the South station.

TBC and the LVCVA have not yet provided information regarding the outcome of the kitten rescue, or responded to more detailed inquiries concerning trip data.

However, TBC is diligently recording all safety and security occurrences, as is standard for any public transportation network. There have been at least three instances of Loop vehicles making contact with fences or bollards due to navigational errors, resulting in minor vehicle damage.

As of the end of June, the only reported passenger injury involved a minor laceration and contusion to a finger sustained when a vehicle door was accidentally closed on a hand.

Future Expansion and Considerations

The collected data will prove crucial as TBC progresses with plans to expand the technology for city-wide implementation. Currently, it remains uncertain whether the broader Vegas Loop system will permit the transport of children and pets.

The pricing structure for tickets on the paid system has also yet to be determined.