Consumer Tech Spending 2025: Record Forecast & Trump Tariff Impact

Consumer Tech Spending Forecast for 2025

The Consumer Technology Association (CTA) has released a new one-year forecast predicting that American consumers will allocate a record $537 billion to new applications, devices, and gadgets in 2025.

Potential Impact of Tariffs

However, Brian Comiskey, the CTA’s futurist, cautioned that proposed tariff plans from former President Trump could significantly curtail this spending. These tariffs would likely increase costs for consumers across the nation.

The CTA projects a 3.2% growth in retail revenues for the U.S. consumer technology sector in 2025 compared to 2024, resulting in record-breaking figures.

Comiskey emphasized that these projections are subject to change, as smartphones and laptops are particularly vulnerable to the proposed tariffs. He stated that tariffs on technology products could diminish U.S. purchasing power by $90 to $143 billion.

Analysis of Tariff Proposals

In October, the CTA published a report analyzing two specific tariff proposals:

• A 10% or 20% tariff on all imports from every country.
• A 60% tariff on all imports originating from China.

The report concluded that these tariffs could lead to substantial price increases, including a 46% rise in the cost of laptops and tablets, a 40% increase for video game consoles, and a 26% increase for smartphones.

Comiskey further elaborated that spending on tablets and laptops could decrease by as much as 68%, gaming consoles by up to 58%, and smartphones by as much as 37%.

The Potential for a "Super Cycle"

Absent these tariffs, the consumer tech industry is poised for a spending "super cycle." This is largely due to the fact that the latest PCs, tablets, and smartphones are required to access new AI-driven functionalities like Apple Intelligence.

The CTA’s research demonstrates strong consumer interest in these features. A significant portion of consumers are already familiar with generative AI and have utilized it in professional settings.

AI's Influence on Consumer Tech

Artificial intelligence is also enhancing established consumer tech categories, including fitness trackers, smart TVs (such as a recent product announcement from Google), and parent tech like electronic baby rockers.

The actual value of AI integration within these products may be secondary to the overall appeal of new technology.

The Rising Purchasing Power of Gen Z

A key factor contributing to a strong 2025 for gadgets is the increasing financial influence of Generation Z. Udemy forecasts that Gen Z will comprise 27% of the global workforce in 2025.

This generation is known for its enthusiasm for new technology and its willingness to be early adopters.