Can the World Fall Apart? Exploring Global Risks

Understanding the Spectrum of Climate Change Literature

Within the extensive collection of books addressing climate change, distinct thematic categories frequently emerge. Many works function as comprehensive field guides and detailed observational reports, documenting the environmental degradation occurring globally and making this information accessible to a broad readership.

Alongside these, analyses of policy and technological solutions are prevalent, carefully weighing potential benefits and drawbacks while offering guidance to both individuals and governing bodies in their decision-making processes.

Historical and Geological Perspectives

Furthermore, a significant portion of climate change literature delves into historical precedents, examining past missed opportunities for preventative action. Geological histories provide crucial context, revealing the long-term evolution of our planet over millennia.

However, a notably somber category focuses on dystopian scenarios.

The Allure of Dystopian Visions

Dystopian portrayals of the future captivate audiences because they are, fundamentally, imaginative constructs. This characteristic makes them particularly well-suited for adaptation into climate fiction – often termed “cli-fi” – and other creative mediums, such as video games like Final Fantasy VII.

The creation of such works has seen considerable acceleration, mirroring the increasing rate of carbon accumulation in the atmosphere. This genre, however, largely remains centered on exploring hypothetical scenarios and their narrative consequences.

“How Everything Can Collapse” – A Unique Contribution

“How Everything Can Collapse: A Manual for our Times” distinguishes itself as a particularly noteworthy work due to its unique combination of dystopian elements and non-fiction analysis.

Originally published in French in 2015 and translated into English last year, the book champions a candid acknowledgment of what authors Pablo Servigne and Raphaël Stevens term “collapsology.”

Collapsology: A Systematic Inquiry

Unlike movements like Extinction Rebellion or Deep Adaptation, which have gained prominence in the Anglophone world, collapsology is defined by a multidisciplinary and systematic investigation into the current state of our world, civilization, and society.

The authors challenge the prevailing American emphasis on progress and technological solutions, as well as humanity’s inherent optimism. Their primary goal is to accurately assess the present situation and determine whether the recurring stresses, shocks, and crises are merely superficial or indicative of a more fundamental shift.

Their conclusion is readily apparent.

Analyzing Earth Systems and Limits to Growth

Servigne and Stevens meticulously examine critical earth systems – including energy and food production – to identify potential tipping points, inherent physical limitations, and other insurmountable obstacles to continued exponential societal development.

Their findings, unsurprisingly, are concerning. Over a century of exponential human population growth has resulted in an almost unquenchable demand for the planet’s finite resources.

This narrative is familiar to many, but the authors’ exploration of the resulting impact on efficiency is particularly insightful.

The Declining Energy Return on Energy Invested

A compelling example they present is the history of petroleum and the concept of Energy Return on Energy Invested (ERoEI) – the ratio of energy obtained from a resource to the energy expended in its extraction. They note that ERoEI has declined from 35:1 in 1990 to approximately 11:1 today.

This signifies that obtaining fuel is becoming increasingly difficult, requiring greater energy expenditure to yield diminishing returns. This constitutes a negative feedback loop, and one that is accelerating, with little indication of reversal.

Ubiquitous Negative Feedback Loops

Such negative feedback loops are increasingly evident across various earth systems. The Arctic permafrost is thawing, the Amazon rainforest now emits more carbon dioxide than it absorbs, and rising temperatures are escalating the cost and difficulty of food production.

These challenges are compounded by the projected addition of several billion people to the global population this century.

Systemic Lock-Ins and Interdependencies

As with any complex system, interconnectedness creates “lock-ins,” hindering adaptation. Our financial and industrial infrastructure is heavily reliant on abundant and affordable energy sources, making a swift transition away from fossil fuels problematic.

While reducing reliance on automobiles and trucks is conceivable, the geographical distance between many consumers and the sources of essential goods – farms and mines – presents a logistical hurdle. The transportation of goods, or people to those goods, remains unavoidable.

Collapsology: A Call to Realistic Assessment

In the authors’ view, collapsology is about confronting the reality of the systems surrounding us and objectively monitoring their indicators. It involves acknowledging tipping points, discontinuities, and non-linear dynamics, and projecting their implications for our lives and the lives of others.

This is a call for realism, rather than a call to action. The authors urge readers to simply observe and understand.

Exploring Human Responses and Psychological Barriers

The first half of the book focuses on systems analysis, while the second half examines the human dimension, exploring collapsology as a phenomenon. It questions whether the approach is overly pessimistic and investigates the psychological barriers that prevent us from recognizing the fragility of our ecosystems.

The book also considers how art, film, and literature might adapt to this new context, and how individuals will respond to the impending challenges.

A Cultural Counterpoint

The work offers a fascinating cultural counterpoint to American perspectives. In some respects, collapsology represents a contemporary update of French existentialism.

It does not propose solutions, nor does it assert the inevitability of progress. Instead, it observes the human condition and the surrounding environment, recognizing the diverse reactions individuals will have to impending crises.

Acknowledging Complexity and the Potential for Avoidance

The book does not offer a definitive solution and presents a future that borders on dystopia. However, its title – “How Everything Can Collapse” – is crucial, as it suggests a possibility rather than a certainty.

Readers may infer the likelihood of collapse, but Servigne and Stevens ultimately believe that a thorough understanding of the world’s complexity is the key to avoiding it. Collapsology, therefore, can be seen as a form of preventative action – a deep understanding of systemic fragility before critical limits are reached.

This is a refreshingly intellectual perspective, even if it doesn’t necessarily alleviate the anxieties we experience daily.

How Everything Can Collapse: A Manual for our Times by Pablo Servigne and Raphaël Stevens. Translated from French by Andrew Brown.

Wiley, 2020, 250 pages

Originally published as “Comment tout peut s’effondrer: Petit Manuel de collapsologie à l’usage des générations présentes”