Can Europe Compete in the Quantum Space Race?

The Intersection of Technology and Global Politics

The TechCrunch Global Affairs Project is dedicated to analyzing the growing connection between the technology industry and the world's political landscape.

Quantum Computing: A New Geopolitical Arena

For a considerable period, quantum information science remained largely confined to academic research within the technology sector.

However, recent breakthroughs have elevated its importance to a geopolitical level.

A competitive dynamic is now unfolding, mirroring a modern "space race," as numerous countries strive to create their own quantum systems.

The Global Quantum Competition

Currently, the United States and China are at the forefront of this technological advancement.

This leadership is prompting European nations to accelerate their own initiatives in the field.

Consequently, both individual countries and the European Union have significantly increased investment in quantum computing.

Challenges for European Competitiveness

A critical question arises: are the European efforts sufficiently robust and coordinated to effectively challenge the dominance of the two leading tech powers?

The fragmented nature of the European approach, coupled with a potentially delayed start, presents a significant hurdle.

Whether Europe can successfully navigate these challenges and establish itself as a major player in the quantum race remains to be seen.

The U.S. and China in the Quantum Computing Race

Quantum computing represents a revolutionary approach to computation, leveraging the unusual principles of quantum physics – specifically, phenomena like entanglement and superposition, which govern the behavior of matter at the atomic and subatomic levels.

These computers function by controlling the states of particles, such as ions, electrons, or photons, through the application of lasers or electromagnetic fields.

Current Global Standing

Currently, both the United States and China are at the forefront of quantum technology development. Each nation has asserted the attainment of “quantum supremacy,” signifying the capability to resolve complex mathematical problems beyond the reach of even the most powerful conventional computers within a reasonable timeframe.

China's Quantum Advancement

China’s dedicated investment in quantum technologies began around 2015. This surge in focus was largely triggered by concerns arising from the disclosures made by Edward Snowden regarding the scope of U.S. intelligence operations.

Driven by anxieties about American technological prowess, Beijing prioritized the development of quantum communications. While precise figures are debated, China currently holds the largest number of patents related to quantum communication and cryptography, encompassing both hardware and software.

Although China’s work on quantum computers themselves is relatively recent, progress has been rapid. Researchers at the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) presented compelling evidence of achieving “quantum supremacy” in December 2020 and again in June 2021.

The U.S. Response

The United States became acutely aware of China’s potential leadership in quantum technologies following Beijing’s demonstration of satellite-based quantum communication capabilities in 2016.

In response, President Donald Trump initiated the $1.2 billion National Quantum Initiative in 2018. Simultaneously, substantial private investment from major technology companies has fueled independent quantum research efforts.

IBM, a pioneer in the field with the introduction of the first two-qubit computer in the 1990s, is now offering its Quantum System One machine commercially.

Google, a more recent entrant, also claimed to have achieved quantum supremacy in 2019, utilizing a 53-qubit quantum processor built on superconducting technology.

Looking Ahead

• Quantum communication ensures secure data transmission.
• Quantum computing promises breakthroughs in fields like medicine and materials science.
• The race for quantum advantage will likely continue for years to come.

Technologies with Geopolitical Implications

A significant driver for nations like China and the United States is the apprehension that falling behind in quantum computing development will create substantial vulnerabilities in cybersecurity, technological advancement, and economic stability.

The potential for a fully operational quantum computer to compromise current public encryption keys represents a primary concern. While conventional computers would require an estimated 300 trillion years to decipher a 2,048-bit RSA encryption key – a standard for securing online transactions – a quantum computer possessing 4,000 stable qubits could theoretically achieve this in a mere 10 seconds.

European Concerns Regarding Global Competition

European governments express worry over being positioned between the intensifying quantum competition between the U.S. and China. A key issue is the potential for quantum technology to be subjected to export controls.

Effective coordination of these controls among allied nations is considered vital. Historical precedent, such as the U.S. embargo on advanced computer exports to France during the Cold War, serves as a reminder of the risks. This past action spurred France to independently cultivate its own national supercomputer industry.

Currently, European partners are apprehensive that a new technological cold war could hinder their access to crucial technologies and impede trade with other nations. The U.S. is actively expanding its list of controlled items and adding Chinese entities to the “Entity List,” restricting technology exports – even from non-U.S. companies – to these organizations.

As the scope of restricted technologies broadens, European companies are experiencing financial repercussions within their global supply chains. Technologies essential for quantum computer functionality, like cryostats, may soon face export restrictions as well.

Risks Associated with China's Technological Development

Concerns extend to China’s approach to technological development. Challenges to intellectual property rights, limitations on academic freedom, and the use of economic coercion are all factors contributing to these anxieties.

Beyond security, the economic implications of quantum computing are substantial. This disruptive technology promises significant industrial changes. While achieving “quantum supremacy” demonstrates scientific capability, the focus for most entities – governments, labs, and startups – is on achieving “quantum advantage.”

Quantum advantage refers to a level of computational acceleration that provides a practical benefit over classical computers for real-world applications. Given its potential in complex simulations, optimization problems, and deep learning, quantum computing is poised to become a major commercial sector.

The emergence of publicly traded quantum startups signals a growing investment trend. Europeans are concerned about missing out on a potentially significant portion of the 21st-century economy.

• Quantum Computing's Impact: Cybersecurity, economic stability, and technological advancement are all at stake.
• Encryption Vulnerabilities: Quantum computers could rapidly break existing encryption methods.
• Export Controls: Restrictions on technology transfer pose a risk to international collaboration.
• Economic Opportunity: The development of quantum computing represents a substantial economic opportunity.

Is Europe Prepared for Quantum Leadership?

Europe currently holds a strong position in the global quantum race, unlike many other areas of digital technology.

Countries such as the U.K., Germany, France, the Netherlands, Austria, and Switzerland possess substantial quantum research capabilities and thriving startup communities. Both their national governments and the European Union are committing significant funding to quantum computing – encompassing both hardware and software – as well as quantum cryptography.

Notably, the U.K. initiated its National Quantum Technologies Program in 2013, preceding similar efforts in the U.S. and China. As of 2021, Germany and France demonstrated considerable public investment in quantum research and development, allocating approximately €2 billion and €1.8 billion respectively. Amazon is actively developing a quantum computer utilizing a self-correcting qubit technology pioneered by the French startup, Alice & Bob.

Challenges to European Quantum Dominance

Despite these advantages, what obstacles prevent Europe from becoming a major competitor to the U.S. and China in the quantum realm?

A primary concern isn't the creation of quantum startups within Europe, but rather their retention. Many promising European startups tend to relocate outside the continent due to limited access to sufficient venture capital. Europe’s experience with Artificial Intelligence serves as a warning; the acquisition of DeepMind, a leading British startup, by Google (Alphabet) is a well-remembered example.

A similar pattern is emerging with PsiQuantum, a prominent British startup, which has established operations in California to secure necessary funding.

To address this issue, European governments and the EU have launched several initiatives focused on emerging and disruptive technologies, aiming to foster European “technological sovereignty.” However, a crucial question remains: will Europe actually embrace its own technological innovations?

Procurement and Investment Decisions

EU procurement regulations do not inherently prioritize European suppliers, contrasting with the U.S. “Buy American Act.” Currently, EU member states often hesitate to favor European technology providers when more advanced or cost-effective foreign alternatives are available, as exemplified by Germany’s recent purchase of an IBM machine.

This situation may evolve with the implementation of the International Procurement Instrument, a new legislative proposal under negotiation in Brussels. This instrument would introduce a principle of reciprocity in the openness of public procurement markets.

Alongside governmental actions, private sector choices regarding investments, partnerships, and technology adoption will significantly influence the future quantum industry. The decision to favor IBM systems in the 1960s and 1970s profoundly shaped the global computing landscape.

Comparable decisions within the field of quantum computing have the potential to define the industry for decades to come.

The Importance of Early Adoption

The current dissatisfaction in Europe regarding the limited number of globally leading tech companies highlights the critical impact of early support and adoption of new technologies. For Europe to effectively compete with the U.S. and China in the quantum domain in the coming years, it must not only sustain its present progress but also accelerate it.