US-China Relations: A War, Not Competition?

The Shifting Landscape of Global Power and Technology

Over the course of 2021, perceptions of China’s commitment to a free market economy underwent a significant revision. The nation demonstrably dismantled that notion by curtailing the power of its technology firms and intensifying media censorship, actions directed by a president who previously oversaw the removal of term limits from the country’s constitution. These term limit adjustments, however, represented a temporary deviation, considering China’s historical governance by absolute monarchs, a pattern spanning millennia, as noted by NPR.

A Call for Vigilance from Silicon Valley

Jacob Helberg, co-chair of the Brookings Institution China Strategy Initiative, a former senior advisor to Stanford’s Cyber Policy Institute, and a former news policy lead at Google, argues that the U.S., particularly Silicon Valley, must pay considerably closer attention to this consolidation of power. He served as an advisor to U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg during his presidential campaign as well.

The Rise of “Techno-Totalitarianism”

In his new book, “The Wires of War: Technology and the Global Struggle for Power,” Helberg details how China’s “techno-totalitarian” system initially impacts its own citizens – whom he identifies as the “first victims” – but ultimately poses a genuine and escalating threat to the U.S. and democracies worldwide through its increasing control over internet software and hardware.

A Warning from India

Helberg points to India as a potential harbinger of challenges the U.S. may face. Last year, a city of 20 million people experienced a power outage, an event he suggests may have been a warning from the Chinese government. He emphasizes the need for decisive and unified action from both private industry and the federal government to prevent similar occurrences in the U.S.

The Two Fronts of the “Gray War”

Helberg explains that the conflict exists on two levels: a software battle controlling information access, and a hardware battle focused on the physical infrastructure of the internet. He contends that controlling this physical infrastructure is the most critical aspect of the struggle, as it allows control or compromise of everything that operates on it.

The Infrastructure at Risk

Critical infrastructure includes cellular phones, satellites, fiber optic cables, 5G networks, and artificial intelligence. Controlling the back end, the physical infrastructure, also enables control over the front end, the software and applications.

Cyberattacks and Attribution Challenges

Helberg acknowledges the difficulty in attributing cyberattacks, particularly given the U.S.’s privatized internet system. Private companies may be hesitant to report breaches due to potential legal and financial repercussions. He notes that the U.S. has already experienced substantial cyberattacks, raising concerns about the integrity of the energy grid and the compromise of sensitive government employee data.

The India Hack: A Potential Precursor

The cyberattack on India is historically significant as the first indication that a potential escalation of the conflict could result in physical destruction on U.S. soil, a scenario not seen since the Revolutionary War, with the exceptions of 9/11 and the Civil War. This attack highlighted the vulnerability of critical infrastructure, including nuclear power plants.

Responding to the Threat

The U.S. government has already taken a firm stance against Huawei’s involvement in building U.S. infrastructure. Concerns also exist regarding companies like Zoom and their potential exposure to Chinese intelligence. Finding the appropriate balance between national security and protecting business rights is a key challenge.

An Outbound CFIUS Framework

Helberg advocates for the establishment of an outbound CFIUS framework, mirroring the existing system for reviewing inbound investments. This would allow the U.S. government to scrutinize and potentially block U.S. investments in China, particularly those posing national security risks.

Financial Incentives and Congressional Action

While acknowledging the financial incentives for companies to continue operating in China, Helberg believes that proposals for such a framework are gaining traction in Congress. He suggests that a crisis may be necessary to prioritize these issues and secure the support needed for legislative action.

Beyond Competition: A Struggle for Survival

Helberg reframes the U.S.-China dynamic as a “war” rather than a competition, emphasizing that the outcome concerns the political survival of the U.S. system. This perspective necessitates a more determined and urgent approach to the challenge.

The Costs of Decoupling

He argues that absorbing short-term costs, such as relocating supply chains, is necessary to avoid the potentially catastrophic consequences of being cut off from access to those supply chains. This echoes the mobilization of American industry during World War II.

Carrots and Sticks for Industry

A combination of penalties for sensitive investments in China and incentives for trade with countries that do not pose risks to the U.S. is likely to be the most effective approach to influencing private industry behavior.

Distinguishing Between Government and People

Helberg stresses that the U.S. is at war with the Chinese government, not the Chinese people. He emphasizes that the Chinese people are, in fact, the primary victims of the CCP’s policies, including Uyghurs, Tibetans, and political dissidents.

It’s crucial to remember that these groups are Chinese nationals who are marginalized within their own country. Countering narratives that equate criticism of the Chinese government with racism is also essential.