Virgin Galactic: Mike Moses on Future Fleet Expansion

Virgin Galactic’s Transition to Commercial Spaceflight: An Interview with Mike Moses

The recent weekend saw the highly anticipated launch of Virgin Galactic’s inaugural (non-revenue generating) passenger flight, with the company’s founder and CEO, Richard Branson, participating in the journey. Following the celebratory events, an opportunity arose to speak with Mike Moses, the company’s president, a figure seemingly versed in every facet of the operation and its progression from testing to commercial flights.

Regrettably, a technical issue occurred with the recording equipment, but Mr. Moses graciously agreed to a follow-up phone conversation later in the week to discuss the next generation of spaceplanes, necessary investments, and other pertinent topics. The transcript of our discussion is presented below. (The interview has been edited slightly for improved clarity.)

Test Flights and the Path to Commercial Service

TC: To start, could you outline the remaining tests required and your anticipated timeline for completing the test flight phase?

Moses: The current test flight series, which included Richard’s flight, signifies a shift in focus. We are moving away from traditional aerodynamic and trajectory testing, and towards validating the cabin experience, training protocols, and hardware for the passengers in the rear of the spacecraft.

We have planned a series of approximately three flights to demonstrate key product milestones and features, while also allowing time for iterative development and optimization of the passenger experience. However, it’s important to acknowledge that this is a tentative schedule. The timeline and number of flights will be contingent on the results obtained. If progress is favorable, we anticipate completing this three-flight series. Should adjustments be necessary, we will add additional flights based on our learnings.

The data gathered after Richard and the crew’s return indicates areas for improvement, but overall, the results were encouraging.

We expect to conduct these flights throughout this summer and into the late summer, after which we will initiate a ‘modification phase’ as previously announced during our earnings call. This phase will involve upgrades to both our mothership and spaceship to prepare them for commercial service. The primary objective is to enhance the flight-rate frequency. Currently, during testing, we proceed at a deliberate pace, meticulously inspecting every component. We aim to accelerate this process as we gain experience and knowledge, and we have already identified modifications to facilitate this transition. A definitive end date for this phase has not yet been established.

Passenger Feedback and Initial Impressions

TC: During our previous conversation at the Spaceport, the crew hadn’t yet been fully debriefed regarding their experience. Do you now have more information regarding recommendations from Sir Richard, Beth Moses, and the other passengers? Has any substantial feedback been shared?

Moses: We are currently in the process of collecting and analyzing all the feedback and debriefing information. As you can imagine, there is a significant amount of data to review. This includes analyzing footage from the 16 onboard cameras, synchronizing the video with live notes, debriefing sessions, and associated audio recordings. We are diligently gathering inputs, but I am not yet prepared to disclose any specific details at this time. We will keep the public informed as information becomes available.

The initial, post-landing feedback was overwhelmingly positive – “things were awesome,” as it was described. While this isn’t a scientific assessment, we are seeking a more detailed analysis through thorough debriefing sessions.

Image Credits: Virgin Galactic

Unity: A Production Prototype and its Maintenance

TC: You mentioned the ‘modification phase’ earlier. Unity is, in essence, a production prototype. Could you elaborate on whether it requires any specialized maintenance due to being the first of its kind?

Moses: There are no specific design or build characteristics that necessitate special upkeep. However, as a test vehicle and our initial model, we provide it with heightened attention. We conduct thorough inspections, both routinely and in response to identified issues, to ensure a comprehensive understanding of its performance and identify any potential unknowns, such as its behavior in cold temperatures or under stress. We closely monitor its operation.

We measure various parameters to assess the vehicle’s performance against its design specifications. If we approach the limits of these specifications, we conduct additional inspections to validate our modeling and predictions. In this regard, it mirrors the approach taken with the first articles of a new aircraft development, employing an extremely conservative maintenance and inspection program. As we gain operational experience, we will refine this program based on positive feedback.

Unity does receive a considerable amount of extra attention. Future vehicles will incorporate lessons learned from this process, allowing for more streamlined inspections. We’ve already identified areas where modifications can reduce inspection frequency.

Expected Lifespan and Future Spacecraft

TC: You previously indicated an expectation of multiple-hundred flights, at least theoretically, from Unity.

Moses: Yes, we anticipate multiple-hundred flights from this vehicle. We established a design envelope with a specific lifetime in mind, and we tested to that standard. Life extension options are also available. Some components may have limitations, but we can address those later. We generally don’t encounter components with a sudden ‘fall off the cliff’ type of lifespan.

Modifications and Future Generations

TC: You mentioned modifications planned for the successor or production craft. Can you share any details about how these will differ, and your anticipated timeline for ‘weight on wheels’ and similar milestones?

Moses: We have already achieved ‘weight on wheels’ with our rollout, effectively transitioning from major factory assembly to ground testing. All systems are now installed, and we are beginning integrated ground testing, where we can run computer and flight control systems through their checkouts while remaining on the ground. However, we are not yet ready for flight.

Regarding changes, when designing the structural framework – the skeleton – of Imagine and Inspire, we optimized the placement of ribs and spars to align with the highest load points. Unity was built based on the original design intent of Scaled Composites, but flight tests have revealed that the load distribution isn’t always as expected. Unity incorporates extra weight to account for this uncertainty. Imagine and Inspire benefit from optimized structures placed precisely where they are needed.

For example, there’s a joint on Unity that requires frequent inspection due to added reinforcement. On Imagine, it was designed correctly from the outset, simplifying inspection access. While I will still inspect it, the process is significantly easier.

Image Credits: Virgin Galactic

These types of improvements streamline my inspection schedule. Other simple changes, such as strategically placed access panels, were added to Unity after the fact but are integrated into the design of Imagine and Inspire. Quick-release fasteners and similar features further reduce inspection times.

The Delta class of spaceships will focus on manufacturability. Unity, Inspire, and Imagine are largely hand-built spacecraft. To achieve the desired flight rates of 400 flights per year, we need to ensure they can be manufactured at a lower cost and within a shorter timeframe. The next design will incorporate these considerations.

Scaling Operations for Commercial Cadence

TC: This leads to my next question: how do you plan to achieve the reliability and cadence required for commercial operation? More aircraft are part of the solution, but perhaps expanding ground operations, increasing crew size, or improving maintenance procedures are also key?

Moses: Absolutely. A fleet of multiple vehicles provides dispatch capacity and resilience against unexpected events like weather. A larger workforce, operating around the clock, allows for specialized expertise and dedicated crews for each vehicle. Our approach will be incremental – we won’t attempt to reach high flight rates immediately. We will gradually increase speed, then speed again, and again. This is Unity’s purpose in 2022: to explore operational cadences and identify multiplying factors for when we add more spaceships.

The business model is strong, but in the next few years, whether we conduct eight, ten, or twelve flights with Unity has a limited impact on revenue. However, it represents a significant step in operational learning, so we want to proceed prudently.

MOJAVE, UNITED STATES – OCTOBER 10: (EDITORIAL USE ONLY, NO SUBJECT SPECIFIC TV BROADCAST DOCUMENTARIES OR BOOK USE) Virgin Galactic vehicle SpaceShipTwo completes its successful first glide flight at Mojave on October 10, 2010 over Mojave in California. (Photo by Mark Greenberg/Virgin Galactic/Getty Images)

Flight Profiles and Future Adaptations

TC: Can you discuss whether you plan to maintain the current flight plans, and whether the revised version with six people might necessitate a slightly different profile?

Moses: This is linked to our shift from testing to operational readiness. Consequently, the established flight profile – the trajectory pilots fly and the techniques they employ – will remain largely consistent. We will continue to optimize, but major revisions are unlikely. These are largely physics-based results. Airspeed, angles, altitude, and weight are all interconnected variables with limited flexibility.

Imagine will require some trajectory adjustments due to its increased capacity, and we will need to verify its performance envelope. However, the fundamental physics of the equation dictate what is achievable, which is why we are initially limited to four passengers. We can explore weight reductions, but with a focus on building a serviceable fleet for the long term.

TC: That’s all I have. Thank you again for your time.

You can watch a recap of the recent Virgin Galactic launch here.