Humanoids: Are We Ready?

Humanoid Robot Investment: A Potential Bubble?

Renowned roboticist and the founder of iRobot, Rodney Brooks, has recently expressed concerns regarding a possible investment bubble surrounding humanoid robots.

Brooks isn't alone in his assessment. He articulated his views in a recent publication, specifically highlighting the substantial venture capital being allocated to companies developing humanoid robots, such as Figure.

The Core of the Concern: Dexterity

His central argument revolves around the belief that, despite significant financial investment, humanoids will struggle to achieve the necessary dexterity – the ability to perform precise hand movements.

Without this crucial capability, Brooks contends, these robots will lack practical utility.

Industry Skepticism

This perspective may seem unexpected, particularly to venture capitalists currently funding this sector.

However, numerous robotics investors and artificial intelligence researchers have privately shared similar doubts with TechCrunch over the past few months.

These experts do not foresee widespread adoption of humanoid robots for several years, with some predicting a timeline extending beyond a decade.

Widespread Adoption Timeline

• Many experts anticipate a delay of several years before seeing significant use of humanoid robots.
• Some predict a timeframe exceeding more than a decade for broad implementation.

The lack of expected near-term returns is causing some within the industry to question the current level of investment in humanoid robotics.

Current Challenges in Humanoid Robotics

Fady Saad, a general partner at Cybernetix Ventures – a venture capital firm specializing in robotics – and previously a co-founder of MassRobotics, conveyed to TechCrunch his belief that, aside from potential applications in space exploration as astronaut substitutes, a substantial market for humanoid robots remains unrealized.

Saad noted that individuals unfamiliar with the advancements in humanoid technology are often readily impressed. However, he and his firm maintain a cautious outlook regarding practical applications and the revenue potential of these robots.

A significant concern for Saad revolves around safety, particularly in environments where humans and humanoid robots operate in close proximity. Potential hazards could emerge in industrial settings like factories, where collaborative work between humans and humanoids is envisioned.

The introduction of humanoids into residential environments, a target for many companies in the field, raises further safety questions. “The potential for injury to children or pets if a humanoid were to fall is a serious consideration,” Saad explained. He also highlighted concerns about security breaches and unpredictable behavior.

The uncertainty surrounding the development timeline for this technology is another key issue. This lack of clarity is particularly relevant for venture capitalists, who operate within defined fund lifecycles and have obligations to deliver returns to their investors.

Specific Safety Concerns

Saad emphasized the potential for physical harm resulting from accidental falls or malfunctions. He questioned the level of public acceptance regarding the presence of humanoids within the home environment.

Further anxieties include the possibility of cybersecurity vulnerabilities and the potential for robots to exhibit erratic or destructive behavior. These factors represent a considerable obstacle that, according to Saad, is largely being overlooked.

VC Perspective on Investment

The absence of a clearly defined timeline for technological maturity presents a challenge for investors. Return on investment expectations require a predictable path to profitability.

Saad’s comments suggest a need for greater scrutiny of the practical viability and safety aspects of humanoid robotics before widespread investment occurs. A more conservative approach to revenue projections may also be warranted.

The Projected Development Timeline for Humanoid Robots

According to Sanja Fidler, VP of AI Research at Nvidia, establishing a precise timeline for the advancement of humanoid robots is challenging. However, she draws a parallel to the initial enthusiasm surrounding self-driving car technology.

Fidler noted that the period between 2016 and 2017 felt like a turning point for autonomous vehicles. Despite this early optimism, achieving widespread, fully autonomous operation proved significantly more difficult and remains largely unrealized even today.

Bill Dally, Nvidia’s chief scientist, echoed this sentiment in a discussion with TechCrunch. Their perspectives are particularly relevant given Nvidia’s substantial investment in the infrastructure required for humanoid robot development.

Seth Winterroth, a partner at Eclipse, cautioned against overexcitement with each new technological advancement or demonstration. He emphasized the inherent complexity of humanoid robotics and suggested that realizing their full potential will require considerable time.

Winterroth explained that managing software releases for systems with six degrees of freedom is already complex. Humanoid robots, however, often involve 60 or more degrees of freedom.

Achieving favorable unit economics, strong gross margins, and a sustainable business model are also crucial hurdles. Winterroth believes the field is currently in its early stages.

Currently, the majority of humanoid robots are not yet prepared for real-world deployment.

Tesla’s experience exemplifies the challenges facing companies in this sector. The announcement of their humanoid robot, Optimus, was made in 2021, with an initial target launch date of 2023.

This timeline proved inaccurate. The unveiling of Optimus in 2024 at Tesla’s “We, Robot” event revealed that the robots were primarily operated through remote human control. The company now anticipates commencing sales in 2026.

Figure, a robotics startup with a valuation of $39 billion as of September, has also faced scrutiny regarding the actual number of deployed humanoid robots. The company vigorously defends its deployment claims.

Key Challenges in Humanoid Robot Development

• Complexity of Movement: Managing software for robots with numerous degrees of freedom (60+) is exceptionally difficult.
• Economic Viability: Achieving strong gross margins and sustainable business models is essential.
• Real-World Readiness: Most humanoid robots are not yet capable of functioning reliably in unstructured environments.

The development of fully functional and commercially viable humanoid robots remains a long-term endeavor, requiring significant technological and economic breakthroughs.

The Continued Pursuit of Robotics

Despite current challenges, the development of humanoid robots remains a worthwhile endeavor, and a future market for them is still anticipated.

Marc Raibert, known as Brooks, has stated his belief that humanoids will eventually be realized. However, his vision diverges from the common perception of a fully human-shaped robot.

Brooks anticipates that future iterations will likely incorporate features like wheels, deviating from a strictly human form factor, and their widespread availability is projected to be more than ten years away.

Advancements in Dexterity Technology

Several startups are actively focused on enhancing the dexterity capabilities that Brooks questions the feasibility of achieving in humanoids. These include Proception and Loomia, both supported by Y Combinator.

Loomia has even developed a kit designed to facilitate the integration of tactile sensing into robotic systems for other companies.

Emerging Demand for Humanoid Robots

Despite skepticism, numerous companies specializing in humanoid robots are beginning to accept preorders and gauge market interest in their products.

K-Scale Labs, for example, received over 100 preorders for its humanoid robot within the first five days of availability, exceeding the founders’ expectations, as CEO Benjamin Bolte shared with TechCrunch.

Strong Developer Interest

Hugging Face has also observed significant demand from developers for its humanoid robot platforms.

Preorders for the Reachy Mini, a smaller desktop version, opened in July and generated a substantial response. Within just five days, Hugging Face recorded $1 million in sales for the Reachy Mini robots.

• Key takeaway: While fully humanoid robots are still distant, progress in related technologies continues.
• Market signal: Early preorders demonstrate developer and consumer interest.