The Department of Justice has taken action to prevent the completion of the Visa-Plaid agreement, a transaction that has been anticipated for some time.

Originally announced in early 2020, the government’s decision to challenge the deal in November represents a significant setback for both companies. They have spent almost a year in a state of uncertainty, awaiting approval, and their efforts may ultimately prove unsuccessful.

However, irrespective of the deal’s future, the government’s legal complaint itself is remarkably insightful. While such commentary is unusual in the realm of antitrust law, 2020 has been a year of unexpected developments.

Here is the illustrative diagram, along with its explanation:

As the accompanying text indicates, Plaid is depicted as a volcano, and Visa is positioned elsewhere, conducting business but concerned that Plaid’s potential disruption could alter the existing market conditions. This analogy appears fitting.

A different interpretation of the “Magic Volcano” – a more effective conceptual model than a traditional quadrant – comes from Peter Berg, a former Visa Ventures founder, regarding the doodle:

According to Peter’s perspective, the volcano is better understood as an iceberg. This would position Visa as a vessel like the Titanic, or a comparable ship, wouldn’t it?

While it might be tempting to conclude with a playful reference, the government appears determined to prevent Plaid from integrating with Visa.

Considering this outcome, if the Volcano-Iceberg Deal is terminated, will Plaid pursue alternative opportunities and target other companies? One particular organization immediately comes to mind.