2024 Trends in EVs, Robotaxis & Electric Flight

Transportation Trends of 2024: A Year of Pivots

The year 2024 in the transportation industry was largely defined by a sense of rapid and unexpected change, aptly described as “business whiplash.” Established automotive manufacturers reassessed their commitment to exclusively electric vehicles (EVs), while numerous startups altered their strategies.

Furthermore, venture capitalists and leaders from Silicon Valley modified their perspectives, particularly in response to an evolving political climate where their influence became increasingly prominent.

Major Shifts and Rebrandings

Jaguar underwent a significant and controversial rebranding initiative, generating substantial discussion and sparking considerable activity on social media platforms.

General Motors (GM) adjusted its EV rollout schedule and was compelled to revise its software approach. This internal reorganization was spurred by challenges encountered with the Chevy Blazer EV, though recent progress has been made.

Perhaps GM’s most notable decision was the discontinuation of funding for the development of the Cruise robotaxi program.

Adapting to a Dynamic Market

Throughout the year, entrepreneurs, investors, and automotive leaders consistently adapted their strategies.

These adjustments were driven by the need to capitalize on evolving consumer preferences and, in many instances, to ensure their continued viability.

Key Themes of the Year

The following represent the most significant developments and narratives within the transportation sector during 2024.

Strategic pivots by established automakers.
Re-evaluation of EV-focused strategies.
Challenges and adjustments in software development.
Shifting investment landscapes in the autonomous vehicle sector.
The impact of political factors on industry direction.

Autonomous vehicles: Shifts, enduring companies, and expansion

The period of intense excitement surrounding autonomous vehicle technology – spanning from 2016 to 2020 – has passed. The typical technology hype cycle has led us to a point of diminished expectations. Several remaining AV startups, including Ghost Autonomy and Phantom Auto, which had previously adjusted their strategies, ceased operations in 2024.

A number of other AV startups followed the example of companies in different industries and transitioned into the defense sector, formally becoming companies with both civilian and military applications. Still others, such as TuSimple, have largely shifted away from the development of autonomous technology, instead focusing on *checks notes* AI-driven animation and gaming.

The route to a viable commercial robotaxi service remains challenging. GM made the decision to discontinue funding for the Cruise robotaxi development program. The automaker intends to utilize this technology and expertise to gradually enhance its hands-off advanced driver-assistance systems and eventually introduce personally owned autonomous vehicles.

However, AVs experienced a resurgence due to a thriving and highly publicized AI sector, alongside renewed interest in the end-to-end approach to autonomy (as evidenced by Wayve’s progress). Waymo and Zoox, both companies with substantial funding, continue to pursue the commercial robotaxi model. And, of course, there is Tesla, which unveiled its Cybercab prototype this year, with production planned for 2025 or 2026.

CEO Elon Musk also stated his intention to release “unsupervised FSD” and initiate a robotaxi service in California and Texas next year. However, these claims are being met with caution, considering Musk’s history of missed deadlines.

Key AV developments of 2024:

Apple discontinued its autonomous electric car project and initiated workforce reductions.
Employees of Cruise expressed surprise at GM’s decision to terminate the robotaxi program.
Investors expressed disapproval as TuSimple pivoted from self-driving trucks to AI gaming.
Motional reduced its workforce by approximately 550 employees, representing around 40%, through a recent restructuring.
Tesla showcased 20 Cybercabs at the We, Robot event, stating they will be available for purchase at a price point below $30,000.

Electric Vehicle Sector Faces Challenges and Transformations

Established automotive manufacturers, including Ford and General Motors, have made substantial investments – totaling billions of dollars – to expand their electric vehicle (EV) offerings and secure domestic battery production. These efforts aimed to strengthen supply chain resilience. EV sales have consistently reached new peaks throughout the year, aided by the incentives provided through the Biden administration’s EV tax credit.

However, both automakers and investors have expressed concerns that the growth rate of electric car sales, which represented 8.9% of all auto sales in the third quarter, has not met initial expectations. Even Tesla experienced a decline in profits earlier in the year, with Elon Musk attributing a shift away from EVs to the increasing popularity of hybrid vehicles.

Startup Struggles and Financial Difficulties

The SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) model has largely failed to deliver sustained growth for EV startups. The decline of Fisker serves as a prime example, marked by mismanagement and ultimately requiring a partnership with American Lease to address recall repairs for its customers.

Canoo has also encountered significant cash flow problems, leading to employee furloughs in December. These financial difficulties may stem from excessive spending, such as the expenditure of twice the company’s annual revenue on CEO Tony Aquila’s private jet, or the acquisition of assets from the bankrupt Arrival.

Despite raising over $1 billion through a SPAC merger in 2021, Faraday Future is also facing a precarious financial situation. The company is now indebted to Palantir, which has acquired an 8.7% stake after Faraday was unable to cover outstanding service fees.

Rivian's Progress and Tesla's Restructuring

Rivian stands out as one of the few new EV companies that did not go public via a SPAC merger. While not without its challenges since its IPO, Rivian achieved key milestones in 2024, including navigating legal disputes alleging harassment by executives.

In March, Rivian introduced its next-generation R2 SUV and, unexpectedly, the R3 hatchback. The company’s long-term viability became increasingly dependent on achieving profitability with its updated R1T pickup and R1S SUV, enabling it to fund the production of the more affordable R2 SUV. Rivian secured a $6.6 billion loan to resume construction at its Georgia plant, a deal reportedly facilitated by a confidential agreement with the United Auto Workers union.

Tesla underwent a period of significant change as Elon Musk fought to reinstate his $56 billion compensation package, relying on investor support. The automaker implemented widespread layoffs, disbanded its Supercharger team, abandoned plans for a $25,000 EV, issued seven recalls for the Cybertruck, and revealed a prototype of its robotaxi.

Further Developments in the EV Landscape

Key EV news stories from 2024 include:

A first-hand account of living with the Chevy Equinox EV.
Hertz’s decision to sell 20,000 EVs and replace them with gasoline-powered vehicles.
A review of the 2025 Lucid Air Pure, highlighting its luxury features and technological capabilities.

eVTOLs Continue to Garner Investment

The electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicle sector experienced a year marked by ambitious goals. Throughout the year, frequent announcements were made, particularly from leading companies such as Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation, outlining their intentions to initiate commercial electric air taxi services beginning in 2025.

Securing financial resources was also a significant focus, with both firms actively seeking additional capital to obtain Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification and launch their respective air taxi operations by 2025. Joby, for instance, initially received a $500 million investment from Toyota, followed by a $222 million raise and a subsequent $300 million public offering.

Archer Aviation successfully raised $430 million and established a collaboration with Anduril to explore opportunities within the defense sector – a trend anticipated to gain momentum in 2025 alongside the growing interest in defense technologies. Beta Technologies also completed a $318 million Series C funding round.

Strategic alliances between eVTOL startups and established airlines flourished, exemplified by Beta’s recent agreement with Air New Zealand. Simultaneously, the infrastructure for these vehicles, including the development of vertiports, progressed in major cities across the United States, Europe, and Asia.

However, not all ventures proved successful. Some companies encountered financial difficulties and were unable to secure further funding. Lilium, a German eVTOL startup, filed for bankruptcy due to insufficient capital. Though the company ceased operations and reduced its workforce by 1,000 employees in December, a potential investor has offered a late-stage rescue.

The year 2025 will be pivotal, determining whether the remaining companies can achieve FAA approval and establish viable businesses centered around eVTOL technology.

Further noteworthy eVTOL developments from 2024 include:

Federal regulators pave the way for eVTOL companies to introduce flying vehicles into U.S. airspace.
Beta Technologies presents its inaugural electric aircraft capable of carrying passengers.

Micromobility experiences ongoing development

The initial excitement surrounding shared micromobility solutions has significantly diminished. Throughout this year, we observed the concluding stages of industry consolidation, strategic shifts in business models, and the emergence of companies that have successfully navigated the challenges.

A notable development was the merger between Tier and Dott, while Lime maintained its trajectory towards financial stability and a leading position in the market, even if consistent profitability remains elusive.

The 2023 bankruptcy of VanMoof underscored the complexities involved in expanding a novel e-bike venture, despite demonstrable consumer demand for aesthetically appealing and technologically advanced e-bikes. Similarly, Cake initiated bankruptcy proceedings early in the year. Onyx Motorbikes faced imminent financial collapse when its founder, aged 37, unexpectedly passed away, creating substantial organizational difficulties. However, both Cake and Onyx have been presented with opportunities for revitalization in 2025.

Certain startups have demonstrated the ability to sustain e-bike operations. Joco serves as a prime example. The company has overcome obstacles and transformed its docked e-bike rental service, catering to delivery personnel, into a profitable enterprise. Furthermore, it has expanded its offerings to include the development of battery-charging stations.

A key micromobility development of 2024: