Reaching Biden's 2050 Solar Goal: 4 Key Requirements

The Department of Energy’s Vision for a Solar-Powered Future

A recent report released by the Department of Energy forecasts a promising future for solar energy, predicting that nearly half of the nation’s energy needs could be met by the sun within the next three decades. Realizing this ambitious goal, however, necessitates significant advancements across four key areas: enhanced photovoltaics, expanded energy storage capabilities, reduced soft costs, and the creation of approximately one million new jobs.

The following details the specific developments required within each sector to achieve the objectives outlined in the report.

Advancing Photovoltaic Technology

Continued improvement in both the cost-effectiveness and efficiency of solar cells is crucial for achieving the desired installation volumes. In 2020, a record 15 gigawatts of solar power was installed. To meet future demands, this rate must double by 2025 and again by 2030.

Without gains in efficiency, installation targets will need to be even more aggressive. Maintaining current prices will also hinder the ability to reach these volumes.

Progress in photovoltaics is ongoing, but further development is essential. Image Credits: US Dept. of Energy

Efficiency is already increasing, and costs are decreasing, driven by substantial investments in new manufacturing processes and materials. Sustained investment in basic research and the advancement of solar science and methodologies is paramount.

The DOE suggests focusing research on reducing the cost of more advanced PV technologies and minimizing bandgap-related losses through cell stacking. Innovative applications, such as flexible, tile-like substrates and semi-transparent installations for agriculture or building integration, are also being explored. The overall objective is to reduce the average cost from $1.30/watt today to $0.70 by 2030, with further reductions planned beyond that timeframe.

Solar concentrators are also highlighted in the report as a potential replacement for industrial processes, though their impact on the broader grid is expected to be limited.

Expanding Energy Storage Solutions

Increased reliance on solar energy necessitates robust energy storage solutions to provide power during nighttime hours. Historically, this was achieved with nuclear or coal power, but the trend is shifting towards storage systems that capture excess daytime energy.

Greater renewable energy integration allows cities to move away from carbon-based energy sources safely. While batteries are a key component of energy storage, their capacity is insufficient to serve as the primary storage mechanism for the nation’s energy needs.

This diagram illustrates the typical demand curve (purple), the impact of solar energy (orange), and how energy storage can mitigate fluctuations (solid colors). Image Credits: US Dept. of Energy

Excess energy can be channeled into renewable fuel production, such as hydrogen fuel cells, which can then generate power when solar energy is unavailable. Furthermore, the report identifies several promising storage technologies under development, including thermal, chemical, and mechanical storage, such as pumped thermal storage, liquid air energy storage, gravity-based systems, and geological hydrogen storage.

A diverse range of technologies will be required to meet varying energy redundancy and storage duration needs, bolstering the reliability of solar and other renewable energy sources.

Reducing Soft Costs

To accelerate the deployment of solar energy, costs must be reduced across the entire process, not just for the solar cells themselves. This includes assessment, accounting, labor, and company profits.

Startups like Aurora Solar are already addressing this challenge by streamlining the planning, visualization, and sales of solar installations through online platforms.

Currently, the total cost of a solar roof can be double or more the cost of the hardware. This is due to factors like financing, regulations, and market dynamics. Even small reductions in installation costs – as little as 1% – can translate into significant savings at scale.

Achieving these reductions will require collaborative efforts from numerous organizations and businesses, mirroring the scientific advancements needed to improve photovoltaics.

Creating a Million Jobs

The widespread adoption of solar energy will require a substantial workforce – significantly more than the current estimated 250,000 people employed in the U.S. solar industry.

Image Credits: Will Lester/Inland Valley Daily Bulletin / Getty Images

These jobs will span a wide range of skills, from construction and grid management to public-private partnerships. The anticipated growth will likely foster numerous new companies and sub-industries, with approximately 65% of jobs in installation and project development, 25% in sales and manufacturing, and the remainder in various other roles.

A just transition for workers in the fossil fuel industry is also crucial. The report emphasizes the need for funding programs that provide training, relocation assistance, and protection of existing benefits like pensions. Furthermore, the report acknowledges the lack of diversity within the solar industry and advocates for equitable hiring practices to ensure the new workforce reflects the broader population.

The full study can be accessed here.