According to analyses conducted by BloombergNEF, the period of highest greenhouse gas emissions may already be in the past, a consequence of the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The latest New Energy Outlook report from BloombergNEF indicates that the significant decrease in energy demand resulting from the global response to the coronavirus pandemic will effectively eliminate 2.5 years of projected energy sector emissions between the present and 2050.

The analysis firm’s most recent models, which monitor the evolution of the global energy landscape, suggest that emissions originating from fuel combustion likely reached their peak in 2019.

The company’s projections demonstrate a roughly 20% decline in global emissions due to international measures taken in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. While emissions are anticipated to increase alongside economic recovery, BloombergNEF’s models do not foresee them returning to 2019 levels. Furthermore, emissions are forecast to decrease at a rate of 0.7% annually from 2027 through 2050.

These optimistic forecasts are predicated on substantial investment in wind and solar power infrastructure, widespread adoption of electric vehicles, and improvements in energy efficiency across various industries.

Wind and solar energy are collectively projected to supply 56% of global electricity generation by the middle of the century. These sources, alongside battery storage, are expected to attract $15.1 trillion in investment for new power generation over the next three decades. The firm also anticipates $14 trillion will be invested in upgrading the energy grid by 2050.

Potential challenges to this positive trend could arise from India and China, both of which have historically relied heavily on coal power to fuel their economic growth. However, the Bloomberg report also identifies encouraging developments within these major coal-consuming nations.

The report anticipates that coal-fired power generation will peak in China in 2027 and in India in 2030. By 2050, coal is projected to account for only 12% of global electricity consumption. Despite the growth of renewable sources, gas-fired power is not expected to disappear, remaining the sole fossil fuel to experience continued growth, albeit at a modest rate of 0.5% per year.

However, these projections should not be interpreted as a cause for unrestrained optimism, as the current trajectory still indicates a potential global temperature increase of 3.3 degrees Celsius by 2100.

“The coming decade will be critical for the energy transition,” stated Jon Moore, chief executive of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. “We will need to see three key developments: accelerated deployment of wind and photovoltaic power; increased consumer adoption of electric vehicles, small-scale renewables, and low-carbon heating technologies like heat pumps; and scaled-up development and deployment of zero-carbon fuels.”

A three-degree Celsius temperature rise would have severe consequences. Vast areas of the world could become uninhabitable due to widespread drought, rainfall in Mexico and Central America could decrease by approximately 50%, Southern Africa could face a water crisis, and significant portions of countries could be overtaken by sand dunes (including parts of Botswana and the Western U.S.), as described in Climate Code Red.

“To remain well below a two-degree Celsius rise in global temperature, we would need to reduce emissions by 6% annually starting immediately, and to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, emissions would have to fall by 10% per year,” explained Matthias Kimmel, a senior analyst and co-author of the latest report, in a statement.