Generational Ethics: Do We Owe Future Generations?

The Allure of the Immediate and the Neglect of True Risks

We currently exist within a culture dominated by immediacy. Live broadcasts, rapid-fire tweet threads, on-location streaming, instant analysis, dedicated response centers, online forums, and personal vlogs all contribute to this phenomenon. A need to engage with the present moment, to experience the thrill of unfolding events, has become pervasive.

This compulsion extends to a fascination with global dangers. Recent events, such as Hurricane Ida impacting New Orleans and the Eastern Seaboard – featuring some of the most powerful winds observed in the Gulf of Mexico since Hurricane Katrina – and the unfolding turmoil in Kabul, captured in real-time through videos and live streams, demonstrate this preoccupation.

However, simply observing live events does not equate to genuine engagement with life. It cannot replace thoughtful self-reflection or a comprehensive assessment of the world’s well-being. Often, the dangers prominently displayed in headlines are not the most critical concerns demanding our attention. This disparity between perceived, immediate risks and actual risks has widened over time.

“The Precipice”: A Guide to Existential Threats

Toby Ord, in his insightful book “The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity,” contends that we are overlooking the existential risks capable of extinguishing human life and hindering progress. He presents a detailed analysis and a framework for understanding which risks truly matter, and which can be accepted.

Ord’s scope is vast, encompassing the entirety of cosmic history and projecting far into the future. Humanity represents a minuscule fraction of this timeline, with our current advancements concentrated within a relatively recent period. Despite this, the progress achieved is significant, and continued advancement is plausible over millennia.

Potential for Destruction

This potential, however, is vulnerable to destruction if certain present-day risks are not addressed. The same advancements that have brought progress also provide tools for immense destruction, potentially leading to human extinction or widespread civilizational collapse. Ord identifies climate change, nuclear conflict, engineered pandemics, and advanced artificial intelligence as key concerns.

Numerous publications address existential risks, but “The Precipice” distinguishes itself through its grounding in the principles of effective altruism. This is not a pessimistic forecast of potential catastrophes, but a rational evaluation of risks and a guide for allocating limited resources effectively. While asteroids pose a threat, they are well-studied and relatively unlikely, unlike the more unpredictable dangers of generalized AI.

Expanding Our Perspective on Risk

Ord’s central argument urges humanity to broaden its perspective and consider the impact of our actions on future generations – potentially billions or even trillions of beings. Our decisions today affect not only ourselves and our children, but countless descendants and all other life on Earth. He challenges us to adopt a geological and astronomical timescale, moving beyond the immediacy of real-time events.

This undertaking is ambitious and demanding, often simultaneously inspiring and overwhelming. Ord anticipates criticism from various perspectives and dedicates a substantial portion of the book to addressing potential objections and providing further clarification for both casual readers and specialists. “The Precipice” can be a catalyst for recognizing the fragility of our existence and our interconnectedness with the past and future, if one is willing to engage with its complex arguments.

The Challenge of Translating Theory into Action

The book’s reasoning is compelling, yet bridging the gap between abstract analysis and everyday life proves difficult. One must either acknowledge and attempt to mitigate existential risks, or disregard them – or, as Ord suggests, recognize them and actively pursue solutions that reduce those risks. He notes that some technologies can actually lower existential risk, and therefore their development should be prioritized.

However, in a world saturated with daily crises and the emotional impact of suffering displayed on our devices, it’s challenging to prioritize abstract, long-term threats. This critique extends beyond the book itself to the broader field of effective altruism, which sometimes struggles to balance rational analysis with the fundamental human need for emotional connection and empathy in acts of assistance.

A Prophetic Warning

The book’s prescience is noteworthy. Published in March 2020, it addressed pandemics, gain-of-function research, and the risks associated with modern virology – topics that quickly transitioned from academic discussions to global headlines. Existential risks are real, and they require our attention.

However, even well-understood risks, like pandemics, have proven difficult for governments to adequately prepare for. Maintaining vigilance against infrequent events is challenging, and defense systems can degrade over time due to a lack of practical application.

“The Precipice” offers a valuable framework for contemplating the risks facing our future. Its limited engagement with the social and emotional factors influencing our responses, however, may hinder its ability to shift our collective focus away from immediate concerns. Addressing long-term risks is difficult, especially when distractions are readily available.

The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity by Toby Ord
Hachette, 2020, 480 pages