rising data center electricity use risks blackouts during winter storms

Potential Strain on the Electrical Grid from Data Center Growth

An industry monitoring organization has cautioned that the rapid expansion of data centers may pose a threat to the stability of the power grid during the upcoming winter season.

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) projects a 2.5% increase in electricity demand across North America this winter, totaling 20 gigawatts. This represents a notable acceleration compared to the 1% or less growth observed in recent years.

Data Centers as a Key Driver of Demand

A substantial portion of this increased demand is attributed to data centers, particularly in the mid-Atlantic states, the western United States, and the southeastern U.S. These regions are experiencing significant data center development, as explained by Mark Olson, NERC’s manager of reliability assessments.

The NERC report specifically highlights the expansion of data centers in Texas as a contributing factor to the potential for electricity supply shortfalls.

Lessons from the 2021 Texas Freeze

This situation is particularly concerning for Texas, which faced widespread power outages during a severe cold weather event nearly five years ago.

During that crisis, natural gas power plants experienced failures due to frozen wellheads, leading to a significant reduction in natural gas supply. Simultaneously, demand for natural gas surged as residents and businesses attempted to maintain warmth.

Improvements to Grid Reliability in Texas

NERC indicates that the current situation in Texas is unlikely to be as critical as it was in February 2021. This is largely due to the increased deployment of battery storage systems on the state’s grid.

These batteries can provide electricity when gas-fired power plants are unable to operate effectively. Furthermore, they offer a faster response to fluctuations in demand compared to traditional “peaker” power plants, which typically rely on natural gas and require time to start up.

Limitations of Battery Storage

However, Texas is not entirely without risk.

The majority of batteries currently installed in Texas have a limited discharge duration, typically lasting only a few hours. This is adequate for situations where demand peaks for short periods, such as during evening hours.

Data centers, however, maintain a consistent electricity demand throughout the day. If a prolonged cold snap occurs, maintaining sufficient battery charge to serve all customers, including data centers, will present a challenge, according to NERC.

Overall Outlook and Potential Mitigation Strategies

NERC anticipates no major issues with regional electrical grids if the winter passes without significant storms.

However, the organization notes that the past five years have seen four severe storms. Such events could necessitate importing electricity, requesting demand reductions from large customers, or, as a last resort, implementing rolling blackouts.