OpenAI and AI-Driven Commerce: The Future of Retail

OpenAI's Vision for an AI-Powered Internet

During its developer day on Monday, OpenAI unveiled its strategy for integrating applications directly into ChatGPT. The demonstration showcased the seamless integration of services like Spotify and Figma, accessible and discoverable without navigating away from the ChatGPT interface. This presentation offered the most comprehensive vision to date of a future internet fundamentally shaped by AI, where interfaces such as ChatGPT both request information and directly execute commands.

The Potential for Monetization

Observers will have noted significant opportunities for financial transactions within this evolving system. The recent launch of Instant Checkout, an agentic shopping system functioning as payment infrastructure for single purchases, connects with stores utilizing Shopify, Etsy, and Stripe. Now, with the introduction of apps, service providers are empowered to construct their own interfaces within the ChatGPT environment.

Essentially, OpenAI has established all the necessary components for AI-driven commerce, positioning ChatGPT as a central hub for both consumer purchases and retail sales. This represents a substantial new business avenue for the company, carrying significant ramifications for the broader technology landscape. Consequently, OpenAI’s competitive scope expands beyond Google and Anthropic to include retail giants like Amazon and Wal-Mart.

Expanding the Scope of Services

A review of OpenAI’s announced app partners reveals the breadth of this ambition. ChatGPT will facilitate services such as ride-hailing via Uber, travel booking through Expedia, and access to local service professionals like plumbers and locksmiths through Thumbtack. Furthermore, users will be able to order groceries from Instacart, prepared meals from DoorDash, and general merchandise from Target. With further development, ChatGPT could become a primary portal for a large portion of users’ discretionary spending.

Successful implementation of this system could generate revenue far exceeding the current $20 monthly subscription fee. While the specific financial arrangements remain undefined, OpenAI, similar to any app store operator, is poised to receive a percentage of all transactions conducted on its platform. ChatGPT’s product recommendations, leveraging its extensive user data, further shifts the power dynamic in favor of OpenAI relative to retailers.

As Ben Thompson articulated, ChatGPT is evolving into a “super-aggregator,” directing customers to retailers and serving as an access point for increasingly substantial commercial activity. Although OpenAI has numerous potential business ventures to explore, AI-driven commerce stands out as one of the most potentially profitable options.

Industry-Wide Recognition of the Trend

OpenAI is not alone in recognizing this emerging trend. Coincidentally, Adobe released a report on the same day predicting that AI-assisted shopping will dominate this year’s holiday season, with consumers increasingly turning to chatbots instead of traditional search engines to locate the best deals. Mastercard has also identified agentic commerce as a “new competitive arena” within the financial sector.

Google has responded with its own agentic commerce protocol, AP2, which boasts a wider scope but currently lacks the momentum of OpenAI’s offering.

Beyond Simple Product Search

The most straightforward application of AI-driven shopping involves utilizing ChatGPT as a substitute for search when seeking products. For example, if a user is searching for canvas tennis shoes priced under $80, ChatGPT can identify suitable options as effectively as Google Search. However, AI systems are not limited to passive responses.

The AP2 specification allows for agent-initiated purchases, enabling agents to acquire concert tickets immediately upon release or book flights when prices fall below a specified threshold. Furthermore, agents could operate on both sides of transactions, negotiating with purchasing agents to secure optimal deals and bundling products under favorable conditions. Should both retailers and consumers embrace this approach, the implications could extend far beyond a simple “buy” button.

The Question of User Adoption

The critical, yet unanswered, question is whether consumers will embrace AI-powered shopping. While OpenAI and companies like Stripe and Mastercard anticipate significant benefits, user interest in agentic shopping systems has been limited to basic product searches. However, it’s important to note that widespread availability of these systems is still forthcoming, and it will take months before the average user can experience a fully functional agentic shopping environment.

The success of this venture will ultimately depend on how users respond when they finally have the opportunity to try it.