Microsoft Aurora AI Predicts Air Quality, Typhoons & More

Microsoft's Aurora AI: Advanced Weather Prediction

According to Microsoft, their newest AI model demonstrates a remarkable ability to accurately forecast air quality, as well as severe weather events like hurricanes and typhoons.

Details regarding Aurora were released this week in a paper published in the journal Nature, accompanied by a blog post. Microsoft asserts that this model can predict atmospheric occurrences with increased accuracy and at a faster rate than conventional meteorological methods.

Training and Capabilities

Aurora has undergone extensive training, utilizing over a million hours of data. This data originates from diverse sources including satellites, radar installations, weather stations, simulations, and existing forecasts.

The model’s adaptability allows for fine-tuning with supplementary data, enabling targeted predictions for specific weather phenomena.

Comparison to Existing AI Weather Models

AI-driven weather modeling isn't novel; Google DeepMind has previously launched several models, including WeatherNext, which they claim surpasses leading global forecasting systems.

Microsoft is presenting Aurora as a leading performer in this field, potentially offering significant advantages to researchers in weather science.

Demonstrated Accuracy

In testing, Aurora successfully predicted the landfall of Typhoon Doksuri in the Philippines four days before it occurred, exceeding the accuracy of some expert forecasts, as reported by Microsoft.

Furthermore, the model outperformed the National Hurricane Center in forecasting five-day tropical cyclone tracks during the 2022-2023 season.

Aurora also accurately predicted the 2022 sandstorm that impacted Iraq.

Efficiency and Accessibility

Despite requiring considerable computational resources for initial training, Aurora is designed for efficient operation.

It generates forecasts in a matter of seconds, a substantial improvement over the hours required by traditional systems utilizing supercomputer infrastructure.

Public Availability and Integration

Microsoft has made the source code and model weights for Aurora publicly accessible.

The company is also integrating Aurora’s AI modeling into its MSN Weather app, utilizing a specialized version of the model to deliver hourly forecasts, including cloud cover predictions.