Gillmor Gang: Nothing Was Delivered

Bob Dylan’s 80th Birthday and the Shifting Media Landscape

This week marks Bob Dylan’s 80th birthday, a milestone that prompts reflection on his enduring talent. His influence is so significant that it often overshadows other potential topics of discussion, but a tribute to the artist is certainly warranted.

The Evolution of Media and Streaming Wars

Looking back, we once questioned Dylan’s constant reinvention, his refusal to conform, his embrace of electric instrumentation, and even his presence at the Wailing Wall. We were, it seemed, actively seeking guidance. The 1960s fostered a belief in limitless possibilities, a perspective that is now being re-evaluated in light of recent events.

The current financial volatility of cryptocurrencies – fluctuating wildly, sometimes losing half their value, then rebounding – serves as a cautionary tale. Investing in such ventures feels akin to simply discarding money, much like the proliferation of Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs).

These developments provide a useful lens through which to analyze the substantial deals involving Discovery/WarnerMedia and Amazon/MGM. The streaming revolution has fundamentally disrupted the media industry, creating significant upheaval.

The Decline of Traditional Television

The traditional “big three” television networks – NBC, CBS, and ABC – have lost their dominance over our viewing habits. Netflix has redefined television by replacing advertising-supported programming, such as shows like "Gray’s Anatomy" and "This Is Us," with binge-worthy series, like those centered around chess.

This model operates on a monthly subscription, and Amazon Prime has further complicated the landscape by integrating streaming services with its delivery network, a service that became essential during the pandemic and continues to be valuable.

Bundling and the Future of Broadband

Today, consumers can access TV and broadband through NBCUniversal (now Comcast), or opt for broadband alone and access television via streaming platforms. Amazon combines delivery with streaming and its studio (MGM). Google bundles streaming (YouTube TV) with advertising (search).

Meanwhile, Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile offer broadband bundled with financial incentives, with the first two attempting to acquire studios and talent. The rollout of 5G technology represents a potential turning point, potentially overwhelming existing cable infrastructure and challenging the established content cartel.

Navigating the New Normal

While this is a simplified overview, the central question remains: how will these pieces fit together? The accelerating pace of vaccinations suggests a timeline for economic recovery and the integration of 5G technology, alongside a hybrid approach to delivery and digital restructuring.

Consider these questions: If California has vaccinated 81% of its population, will Governor Gavin Newsom face a recall election? And, more broadly, who will emerge as the winners in this streaming media reboot? The answers to both are interconnected.

Building a New Cohort

As we transition into a vaccinated world, we begin by reconnecting with family and friends, forming a new group defined by the dynamics of digital acceleration. A year ago, delivery services were a necessity; now, they are a choice.

The selection of a restaurant or event will be influenced by the signals sent by these services. A venue that prioritizes masking and distancing demonstrates a flexible strategy based on evolving information. Increased confidence in science and reduced fear of the unknown validate this emerging cohort.

The Enduring Appeal of Home Entertainment

Do we miss the movie theater experience? Perhaps, but not enough to abandon the convenience of at-home entertainment that we’ve grown accustomed to. As our confidence increases, even virtual meetings like Zoom calls become more productive, serving as a bridge to future in-person interactions.

This cohort-building process strengthens our adaptability, creating a “new normal” that leverages both virtual and physical experiences.

The Impact of Vaccine Success

Each day, week, and month that the virus recedes marks the consolidation of this new normal. The more things remain stable, the better the overall outcome. Public officials will claim credit for making the right decisions.

Children will return to school, and companies will find the optimal balance between remote work, collaborative office days, and necessary business travel. This new cohort will offer discounts and incentives to its early adopters and influencers.

Subscription streaming services will introduce new bundles, offering advertising-supported discounts in exchange for increased production budgets. News subscription services will provide cohort access to real-time notifications, replacing sensationalized fear-mongering with science-based alerts and strategic business updates.

Predictions and a Fictional Streaming Service

The answer to the California recall question is no, given the state’s political leaning. And, ultimately, we – the creators – will be the victors in the streaming consolidation, reminding Hollywood of our power to shape the future of entertainment.

On a recent episode, I mentioned a new streaming network, “Buki,” designed to challenge the established networks with a blend of ad-supported content. Brent Leary questioned its existence, because I invented it. Buki, continue the good work.

from the Gillmor Gang Newsletter

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The Gillmor Gang — Frank Radice, Michael Markman, Keith Teare, Denis Pombriant, Brent Leary and Steve Gillmor. Recorded live Friday, May 14, 2021.

Produced and directed by Tina Chase Gillmor @tinagillmor

@fradice, @mickeleh, @denispombriant, @kteare, @brentleary, @stevegillmor, @gillmorgang

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