The Exponential Age: Why Everything is Accelerating

The Accelerating Pace of Change

The rate of transformation witnessed in recent decades is poised to intensify in the years ahead. Advances in fields like biology, medicine, space travel, manufacturing, and software are continually reshaping the core tenets of society, economics, and politics. While TechCrunch frequently reports on these innovations, opportunities to assess their collective impact are less common.

Introducing Azeem Azhar and “The Exponential Age”

Fortunately, London-based writer and entrepreneur Azeem Azhar offers a broader perspective. He recently published “The Exponential Age: How Accelerating Technology is Transforming Business, Politics and Society,” building upon his work with the Exponential View newsletter and podcast. I recently hosted Azhar for a live discussion on Twitter Spaces, covering topics from genetic engineering to data privacy and the shifting dynamics of global economies. Key insights from our conversation are presented below.

Interview Highlights

This interview has been edited for brevity.

Danny Crichton: The Genesis of Exponential View

Danny Crichton: How did you begin writing your newsletter, Exponential View?

Azeem Azhar: I launched this newsletter six years ago following the acquisition of my company. Many founders can relate to the experience of being acquired; it’s a peculiar sensation, like wearing someone else’s identity. It feels familiar, yet distinctly not your own. I began writing to a small group of friends, drawing on my experience with newsletters since 1996 as a personal outlet.

At the time, there was a contrast between these seemingly magical technologies and the realization that outcomes weren’t unfolding as anticipated. The newsletter resonated with readers, achieving product-market fit. It grew rapidly, consuming much of my time in researching technologies and the political and economic theories surrounding them. This eventually led to the central thesis of “The Exponential Age”: we are in a unique period of history, filled with both opportunity and risk.

The Dawn of the Exponential Age

You discuss the advancements in silicon, genomics, batteries, and custom manufacturing. These are relatively recent developments in human history. Why is this “exponential age” only beginning now?

Initially, these technologies are costly, and despite rapid improvement, remain inaccessible to many. It takes time for them to become affordable and widespread. Once they reach a certain level of ubiquity, complementary businesses emerge, making them relevant to everyday life.

While chips have existed since the late 1960s, widespread access to computing only occurred with the advent of the iPhone and smartphones. This period also saw renewable energy begin to compete with fossil fuels. This phenomenon mirrors the principles of compound interest; exponential improvements start slowly, requiring years or even decades to reach a significant impact.

I believe we entered the exponential age between 2013 and 2016. In 2012, the world’s largest companies were largely from the previous era – automotive, oil, and energy. By 2016, they were dominated by companies like Tencent and Apple. Furthermore, in 2012, less than half of the global population had real-time access to supercomputing power via smartphones, a figure that reversed by 2016.

The Exponential Gap

Despite these technological advancements, you identify an “exponential gap” between what technology enables and society’s preparedness. Could you elaborate on this?

Technology offers incredible potential, and progress would be impossible without it. However, technology and social norms are intrinsically linked.

This works well when the pace of technological change aligns with the rate at which social institutions – laws, regulations, and societal norms – adapt. But when technology accelerates dramatically, it’s like a three-legged race where one partner runs much faster, leaving the other behind.

Technology evolves rapidly, while institutions are designed to change slowly. Our daily lives are governed by these established customs, regulations, and laws. The challenge isn’t the technology itself, but the exponential gap, which, if unaddressed, can disrupt the functioning of society.

Historical Context and Cognitive Load

You reference Fernand Braudel, who described the remarkable stability of medieval life. Individuals could live 60-70 years with minimal social, cultural, political, or economic change. How do we cope with the constant change of the exponential age?

The cognitive load is substantial.

TechCrunch served as a constant reminder of this accelerating pace. For example, while writing the book, I mentioned UiPath, an automation software company, valued at $1 billion. By the time I received initial feedback, its valuation had risen to $7 billion. By the final draft, it was $10 billion, requiring constant updates. Just before publication, the valuation reached $35 billion after its Nasdaq IPO. This exemplifies the cognitive burden we face.

This burden is shared broadly, as our brains aren’t equipped to handle such exponential changes. We haven’t encountered companies like UiPath, Uber, or DoorDash growing at such unprecedented rates. As Braudel observed, change was typically linear and cyclical, making it understandable. We are ill-prepared for the current techno-sphere.

Limits to Technological Growth

You discuss many rapidly improving technologies, but some haven’t seen the same exponential growth. What are your thoughts on the limits of technological advancement and what does this mean for your thesis?

The key lies in identifying core technologies that exhibit a fundamental learning rate and composability – the ability to combine and integrate with other technologies, enhancing their power. Technologies that become modular and decentralized tend to benefit from stronger learning effects.

We wouldn’t expect hydroelectric dams or large-scale aircraft to demonstrate such effects due to their inherent complexities.

I’m interested in what happens when the costs of these fundamental technologies approach zero. While a new MacBook Pro might cost $2,000, the price of computing is essentially zero compared to previous generations. This creates opportunities in areas like renewable energy, protein and gene engineering, and 3D printing. What happens when these costs truly disappear?

Relocalization and Technological Sovereignty

You argue that the industrial era saw globalization, but the exponential age is driving “relocalization,” intensified by COVID-19. Why is this shift occurring?

Many of these technologies don’t rely on extensive supply chains. Decentralized solar power, grid-scale batteries using electric vehicle batteries, and localized food production through vertical farms all reduce dependence on global logistics.

South Australia is weaning itself off coal with decentralized solar energy. Companies like Bowery Farming are bringing food production into urban centers, optimizing for local consumption rather than supply chain efficiency. Cellular agriculture promises artificial meats without the need for vast farmlands. 3D printing enables localized manufacturing. These trends foster local production and reduce reliance on global supply chains.

Furthermore, there’s a growing recognition of competition in the digital space between nations. China’s Cyberspace Administration (CAC) has strengthened control over its internet industry and implemented stringent data privacy laws, emphasizing technological sovereignty. These forces – technologies enabling local production and a drive for technological sovereignty – are reversing the logic of globalization.

The Exponential Age: How Accelerating Technology is Transforming Business, Politics and Society by Azeem Azhar
Diversion Books, 2021, 352 pages