Elon Musk Admits He Was Wrong About Full Self-Driving

Tesla's Self-Driving Promises and Hardware Upgrades

For almost nine years, Elon Musk has asserted that Tesla vehicles possessed the necessary hardware for fully autonomous driving capabilities. This week, a recent statement revealed that this assertion does not hold true for all models.

During a conference call on Wednesday, Musk acknowledged that Tesla vehicles featuring “Hardware 3” will require a hardware upgrade before they can operate with the unsupervised self-driving software currently under development. These vehicles, sold between 2019 and 2023, utilize an earlier computer version powering the company’s “Full Self-Driving (Supervised)” driver assistance system.

Hardware 3 Upgrade Requirement

“The truthful response is that an upgrade to the Hardware 3 computer will be necessary for customers who have purchased Full Self-Driving,” Musk stated. “This process will be challenging, but we are committed to completing it.”

This development isn’t unexpected for those closely monitoring the company’s advancements. Musk has consistently presented overly optimistic timelines regarding the availability of a fully autonomous vehicle.

The company has repeatedly retracted its 2016 claim that all vehicles being manufactured were equipped with the hardware needed for complete self-driving functionality with a simple activation – a promise that has significantly influenced Tesla’s market valuation. (The original blog post detailing this claim has since been removed from Tesla’s website.)

Evolution of Tesla's Hardware

Tesla initially made this claim in October 2016, following its separation from Mobileye, the original supplier of its Autopilot driver assistance computer. The company’s first in-house hardware, referenced in the 2016 announcement, was designated “Hardware 2.0.” A “Hardware 2.5” computer was subsequently integrated a year later.

However, neither of these computer versions proved sufficient. This was demonstrated when Tesla began delivering vehicles with “Hardware 3” in 2019, requiring owners with older hardware to upgrade to access the supervised Full Self-Driving software. Initially, Tesla charged for this upgrade, but a legal challenge in small claims court resulted in a ruling that Tesla’s 2016 promise constituted “false advertising,” mandating free upgrades.

Hardware 4 and the Future of Self-Driving

Tesla has since transitioned to “Hardware 4” computers, prompting questions about the implications for vehicles equipped with Hardware 3. While Musk and other executives previously expressed confidence in developing software to enable unsupervised driving for Hardware 3 cars, Musk has now conceded this is unlikely.

His recent admission underscores the inaccuracy of the 2016 proclamation made by Tesla and Musk.

Musk previously reacted strongly to media coverage of accidents involving Tesla’s Autopilot system, alleging that “negative” reporting was “killing people” by discouraging the use of autonomous vehicle technology. He made this statement in 2016, at a time when truly autonomous vehicles were not yet available.

Current Landscape and Future Plans

Currently, Waymo operates a commercial robotaxi service in several cities, demonstrating the viability of autonomous vehicle technology.

Musk announced on Wednesday that Tesla plans to launch a pilot program in Austin this June to demonstrate its autonomous capabilities. Following this, the company intends to release a software update for vehicles with newer “Hardware 4” computers, enabling self-driving functionality. He believes 2025 will be “perhaps the most important year in Tesla’s history” for these reasons.