In recent years, the expansion of the space industry has largely been propelled by the growing frequency and dependability of launch services. While this market is poised for continued growth, the new economic landscape made possible by these launches is only now beginning to fully emerge. The surge in launch capabilities is significant, but the concurrent rise in private satellite ventures promises to be even more impactful.

Industry experts, company leaders, and investors generally agree that launch services have attracted a disproportionate share of both funding and attention. This is understandable, given its broad appeal and its fundamental role as a prerequisite for any space-based economic activity.

However, as demonstrated over the past year and anticipated to become even clearer in 2021, the launch industry is transitioning from a phase of investor-supported research and development and testing to a fully operational service economy.

“To date, the launch sector has secured 47% of the industry’s venture capital, despite representing less than 2% of the overall global space economy,” stated Meagan Crawford, managing partner at SpaceFund, during TC Sessions: Space last week. “We believe this imbalance is resolving itself. Our focus now is on identifying what launch capabilities enable – the novel opportunities and business models that are viable today, but were not feasible three years ago when launches were less frequent, reliable, and affordable.”

This perspective is widely shared within the launch industry, even among companies that have not yet successfully deployed a payload into orbit. Their emphasis extends beyond simply proving their launch vehicle’s functionality; they aim to secure a position in a market with severely limited supply (on the launch side) by differentiating themselves and catering to emerging business models. This requires considerably more than just constructing a functional rocket.

“It’s not solely about delivering mass to orbit,” explained Mandy Vaughn, president of VOX Space. “It’s about our ability to respond rapidly, to design and produce solutions quickly, and to deploy those capabilities in innovative ways from unconventional locations. From an investment standpoint, it’s not just about the technology of a single rocket, or comparing in-space propulsion systems. It’s about the complete vertical infrastructure and business model that extends beyond simply reaching orbit.”

Tim Ellis, founder and CEO of Relativity Space, which is scheduled to launch its first fully 3D-printed rocket in 2021, expressed a similar sentiment in a conversation following the conference.

“What we’re monitoring most closely isn’t the competition among different launch providers, although that’s interesting. It’s the number of new satellite companies successfully reaching orbit,” he said. “The market is still expanding at a rate that exceeds the capacity of launch vehicle companies to keep pace.”

Astra, another emerging launch provider, recently achieved its first successful test launch and intends to offer customers a faster, more cost-effective route to space.

“Looking at the demand side, we’re seeing thousands upon thousands of satellites that require launch. Eventually, supply and demand may reach equilibrium, or even shift in a way that reduces the need for so many launch companies. But that time is not yet here,” said Chris Kemp, CEO and founder of Astra, during a panel discussion.

“A few years ago, a handful of startups were purchasing secondary payload opportunities on larger rockets,” he continued. “However, a new wave of companies is now moving beyond the development phase and beginning to procure launches for their constellation deployments. We currently have two dozen launches on our manifest, representing over 100 spacecraft.”

Amazon is among the largest of these companies, embarking on the ambitious project of deploying thousands of satellites into orbit for its proposed Kuiper communications constellation. For Amazon, and for Dave Limp, who leads the project, the challenge isn’t merely securing sufficient launch capacity, but establishing a completely new process for the mass production and distribution of satellites.

“With constellations of this scale, traditional aerospace approaches are insufficient. We need to fundamentally reinvent aerospace,” he told TechCrunch’s Darrell Etherington. “We must produce not just one satellite per year or every two years, but a satellite every couple of days, or even daily, depending on launch availability. This necessitates a complete overhaul of not only satellite design but also manufacturing, transportation, and integration with various launch vehicles.”

“This undertaking will be substantial in cost,” he added. “We have already committed $10 billion to this effort – and it may require further investment.”

To accommodate such ambitious goals, the industry must advance in several key areas, one of which is improved data organization, according to Tim Ellis.

“I haven’t yet encountered comprehensive data that analyzes the number of satellites needing launch, total mass requirements, launch opportunities, and so on – a clear mapping of supply and demand for both launch and spacecraft markets,” he said. While some information is publicly available, such as through FCC filings, other data remains confidential or inaccessible.

For launch to function effectively as a logistical solution, data accessibility is crucial, mirroring other logistics industries. As VOX Space’s Vaughn explained, greater collaboration within the industry at the business level is essential to achieve this.

“I envision a future where this isn’t a specialized niche, but rather an inherent flexibility within the industry, allowing payloads to easily move or adjust their schedules,” she said. “Instead of rideshare being a unique offering, it becomes commonplace – akin to changing airline reservations. If a ride is available to your desired destination, how can we make that process seamless and transferable across the industry?”

Progress in this area has been made, although not yet to the extent Vaughn suggests. Capella’s recent launch with Rocket Lab was initially planned with SpaceX. It wasn’t long ago that switching providers like that was simply not possible.

One aspect of the industry potentially at a turning point is satellite lifespan, and the possibility of refueling, repair, and refurbishment. As Astra’s Kemp noted, “Servicing a satellite wouldn’t be viable if the cost equaled the satellite’s original price. However, if servicing or upgrading can be done at a fraction of the cost, it becomes highly attractive to all parties.”

During a panel discussion on this topic, I spoke with leaders from three companies planning orbital servicing experiments in 2021. The overarching goal is to demonstrate that this practice is no longer merely theoretical, but a serious consideration for any spacecraft design today.

“If we can launch smaller subsystem payloads and assemble components in space, or even replace certain satellite elements… why can’t we upgrade a power subsystem, a camera mechanism, or a computing element?” asked Lucy Condakchian, GM of robotics at Maxar Technologies.

Her company is collaborating with NASA on OSAM-1, a comprehensive orbital servicing mission that will showcase on-orbit refueling, robotic arm assembly of a multipart antenna (Condakchian’s team specializes in this, having provided multiple Mars landers), and 3D printing of a long composite beam.

Daniel Faber, whose company Orbit Fab was a finalist at Disrupt’s Startup Battlefield last year, is working to standardize a new port for spacecraft servicing and refueling. While this may not be practical for inexpensive cubesats with short lifespans, satellites in both low and geosynchronous orbits often represent investments intended to last a decade or more – particularly if they can be repaired or refueled.

“The GEO life extension market exists today – it’s a real and pressing need,” he said, but the key indicator of opportunity, as Ellis pointed out, is the growth in new customers. “A clear sign of value creation in a capital-intensive ecosystem is the rate at which new companies are entering the market.”

“This is supported not only by technological advancements making robotics feasible – complex, but feasible – but also by a market shift where everyone is acknowledging this as the future and incorporating it into their business models. As it becomes a reality, investors are following suit and seeking those opportunities. All of this has converged in just the last five years.”

AstroScale, which has secured $291 million in funding, including $51 million in a recent E round, is one company benefiting from investor confidence. Ron Lopez, president of the company’s U.S. division, explained that their approach to on-orbit inspection – and, if necessary, de-orbiting – reflects the concerns of multiple stakeholders.

“There are numerous potential applications for this capability,” he said. “This includes insurance claims in the event of a satellite anomaly, or space situational awareness. Of course, with the increasing number of objects in space, understanding their location, activity, and potential threats to other objects is a major concern for everyone.”

A significant partnership has already been established between SpaceX and LeoLabs, which provides high-fidelity tracking of satellites and debris. Ellis predicts that a robust intersatellite communication system should be a priority moving forward.

“Think of creating the internet initially, laying fiber, setting up network switches, and establishing basic computing functions,” he said. “It was relatively simple at first, but over time it has become incredibly complex, with numerous niches and services supporting a massive market. I believe similar opportunities exist in space, whether in ground stations, space situational awareness like orbital debris tracking – these are starting to emerge as the ecosystem scales. It may not be as glamorous, but it plays a crucial role, and I anticipate the formation of some substantial companies, particularly on the ground.”

Finally, the increasing opportunities on the ground are noteworthy as the industry matures – and many of these can be addressed through data and software, creating space for fast-moving companies in an otherwise deliberate sector.