al gore on china’s climate rise: ‘i would not have seen this coming’

A Quarter-Century of Climate Shifts: Reflections on Progress and Challenges

Twenty-five years ago, Al Gore was nearing the end of his U.S. presidential campaign, a period preceding an election outcome that, despite securing the popular vote, ultimately eluded him. A central tenet of his platform was ambitious climate action, envisioning America as a global leader in environmental change.

The Unexpected Rise of China

The subsequent reality presents a striking contrast, a point not lost on Gore himself. He acknowledges that, looking back, the current landscape – particularly China’s ascendance as a dominant force in the energy transition – was an unlikely prediction. This outcome would have appeared almost improbable to a candidate focused on steering American climate policy from the White House.

However, Gore doesn’t express regret over China’s leadership, but rather celebrates any nation taking decisive action. He emphasizes that the planet’s well-being isn’t contingent on which country spearheads sustainability efforts, as long as progress is made. His primary concern lies in the lost opportunity – the potential for American innovation and influence to expedite global progress if the nation weren’t actively reversing its own climate initiatives.

Documenting Progress and Setbacks

Gore, alongside Lila Preston from Generation Investment Management, discussed their ninth annual climate report. This report provides a comprehensive overview of both concerning policy reversals in the U.S. and China’s significant emergence as what they term the world’s “first electro state.”

Their conversation centered on current headlines: the tech sector’s increasing demand for rare earth minerals and the principles of responsible mining, the potential impact of the AI boom’s energy consumption from massive data centers, and an assessment of whether space industry rocket launches genuinely contribute positively to climate goals.

Navigating Policy Volatility

You’ve been monitoring sustainability trends for years. Considering the fluctuating policies between U.S. administrations, should other nations cease relying on America for long-term global leadership?

Al Gore: A significant shift is underway, moving in the right direction, though smaller countercurrents exist. The world is progressing powerfully; ten years ago, 55% of energy investment went to fossil fuels, while 45% supported the energy transition. Now, those figures have reversed, with 65% financing renewables and only 35% supporting fossil fuels, and this trend is accelerating.

The U.S. has played a role, but changes in political control have created instability. Consistent U.S. leadership would greatly benefit the world. However, we will overcome current setbacks caused by recent policy changes. The rest of the world is moving forward, and the U.S. will continue to do so, albeit at a slower rate.

China’s “Electro State” Status

The report indicates China is becoming the world’s first “electro state” while the U.S. retreats from clean tech leadership. Was this scenario foreseeable 25 years ago?

Gore: From the perspective of 25 years ago, no, this was not the most likely outcome. However, I always recognized the Chinese leadership’s attentiveness to their scientific community.

The situation is becoming clearer. Repeated droughts reduced hydro capacity, prompting regional leaders to build coal plants – operating at low utilization rates. Simultaneously, solar construction has been remarkable, exceeding their initial goals by six years. This year, they’ve been adding the equivalent of three one-gigawatt nuclear plants in solar capacity daily. It’s truly extraordinary.

China has announced it will now be evaluated on actual carbon reductions, rather than carbon intensity. This signals a firm commitment, as they consistently set and surpass their own standards.

The Importance of Measurement

Regarding the EPA’s proposal to end greenhouse gas emission reporting requirements for coal plants and refineries, what are the implications of ceasing to measure the problem we aim to solve?

Gore: This appears to be an attempt to diminish the crisis by eliminating the information that defines it. However, there is positive news. Generation Investment Management has been a key funder of Climate TRACE, which tracks real-time atmospheric carbon emissions.

We now monitor 99% of global greenhouse gas emissions – encompassing 660 million emission sources. All significant U.S. sources are included. As the saying goes, you can’t manage what you don’t measure, and we will continue to track GHG pollution in the U.S.

Lila Preston: Climate TRACE is partnering with the private sector to enhance supply chain visibility. Companies like Altana, a portfolio company, are using this data for real-time risk and opportunity assessment.

AI, Data Centers, and Energy Demand

President Trump announced the $500 billion Stargate Project for AI data centers in Texas. Your report highlights rising electricity demand as a threat to clean energy progress. Can ambitious AI development coexist with our climate goals?

Preston: This presents the most complex systems-level challenge we’ve faced. The surge in demand – approximately 65% originating in the U.S. – is a significant shock. Data center energy use is currently 2% globally and is projected to double by 2030. However, we believe renewables, storage, and geothermal energy can meet this demand.

Conversely, AI applications in energy, transport, and agriculture could reduce global emissions by 6% to 10% annually by 2035. There’s also a substantial water footprint – a trillion gallons annually by 2027. A holistic approach to this platform shift is essential.

Gore: Efforts are underway to provide clean baseload power, decoupling emissions intensity from compute intensity. Many AI capacity builders recognize the cost advantages of solar plus batteries, incentivizing further development. Consumer-facing companies, committed to sustainability, are also driving this shift, despite the temporary surge in electricity use.

Environmental Justice Concerns

Regarding xAI’s operation of unpermitted gas turbines in Memphis, Tennessee, a historically Black neighborhood with existing air quality issues…

Gore: This is a serious concern. Communities in southwest Memphis have already endured environmental injustice. To subject a 97% Black community, already facing a fivefold higher cancer risk, to additional emissions from methane turbines is deeply unfair.

They recently succeeded in preventing a high-pressure oil pipeline through their community and water source. However, the Tennessee legislature then passed a law prohibiting local interference with fossil fuel infrastructure. This exemplifies the fossil fuel industry’s ability to manipulate the political process, often prioritizing profits over environmental protection.

They’ve leveraged their power to control policy-making at various levels, including the Trump administration. They also obstructed plastics negotiations to protect their petrochemical market, preventing global limits on plastic pollution.

However, communities like Memphis are increasingly challenging this status quo, demanding fairness and environmental justice.

Rare Earth Minerals and Sustainable Mining

The continued growth of plastics and the demand for precious metals are significant issues this year. What is your perspective on the environmental implications of sourcing these materials?

Gore: These materials must be mined responsibly and sustainably, which is achievable. Aggressive efforts are needed to eliminate harmful practices. However, the volumes are relatively small compared to the damage caused by ongoing fossil fuel extraction.

Preston: Innovation is emerging, utilizing advanced modeling and AI to identify sustainable mining locations, reducing landscape impact and protecting local communities. Progress has been made in the last three to four years, driven by global awareness of the need for sustainable practices.

Space Industry Emissions

The space industry is expanding rapidly, with increased rocket launches contributing to carbon emissions. Should we regulate these emissions, or do the climate benefits of space technology outweigh the carbon footprint?

Gore: I believe the benefits of Earth observation from space outweigh the harm from space launches.

Optimism and Concerns for the Future

Looking at this year’s report, what are your primary reasons for optimism and concern?

Gore: My optimism stems from the consistent and accelerating progress of the solutions we need. They are becoming cheaper, and the fossil fuel industry’s ability to resist this transition is diminishing. This transition is inevitable.

However, the critical question is whether we can transition quickly enough to avoid irreversible tipping points. Recent reports indicate the cold upwelling along the western coast of South America – the Humboldt Current – did not occur this year for the first time ever.

As Dornbusch’s Law suggests, things take longer than expected, but then happen faster than anticipated. I believe we’ve reached that point. We must accelerate the transition. We have the technologies, the deployment models, favorable economics, and public support – we simply need to accelerate the decline of polluting industries’ resistance.