AI 2041: Predictions for the Future of Artificial Intelligence

The Future Shaped by AI: A Look at "AI 2041"

Over the coming two decades, where will technological advancements lead us, and what will a world infused with artificial intelligence resemble on a global scale? Kai-Fu Lee, founder of Sinovation and a prominent AI thinker, alongside sci-fi author Chen Qiufan (also known as Stanley Chen), offer informed projections in “AI 2041: Ten Visions for Our Future.” This work comprises ten stories and ten essays, exploring both the potential benefits and inherent risks of AI.

A Collaboration of Vision and Expertise

Following a review of the book – with a full critique forthcoming – and after examining an excerpt published by TechCrunch, I had the opportunity to speak with Lee and Chen during TechCrunch Disrupt 2021. The discussion centered on the origins of their collaboration, the alignment and divergence of their perspectives, and their rationale for the future they envision.

Lee and Chen connected several years ago. One is a successful entrepreneur and leading voice in the field of AI, while the other is an author whose insightful depictions of near-future challenges have garnered international recognition. They decided to create a unique work, blending narrative storytelling with analytical exposition.

“Our aim was to comprehensively portray the story of AI, as its importance demands widespread understanding. However, the subject matter can be intimidating due to its technical complexity,” Lee explained. “What better approach than to convey the narrative through compelling stories?”

Chen added, “We had a brief acquaintance during our time at Google, and I had long considered writing a book about future technology grounded in concrete science, facts, and theories. But without Kai-Fu’s expertise, I couldn’t have realized that vision.”

The Structure of "AI 2041"

The result is “AI 2041”: ten stories penned by Chen, each set in the year 2041 and located in diverse countries, featuring individuals from all walks of life encountering AI in ways the authors anticipate will shape society over the next two decades. Each narrative is complemented by an explanatory essay from Lee, delving into the technical underpinnings and the plausibility of the depicted future.

The stories are self-contained yet exist within a cohesive world, each illustrating a potential application, conflict, or shift in perspective that AI could engender. Crucially, the AI presented is portrayed as a logical progression of current technologies.

Key Principles Guiding the Project

“We began with a framework built around four core principles,” Lee stated. “First, I wanted to cover approximately 15 technologies across the ten stories. Second, we aimed to present them in increasing order of complexity, mirroring the structure of an AI textbook – learning through narrative. Third, we both desired representation across various industries, such as education and healthcare, to demonstrate AI’s pervasive impact. Finally, Stanley insisted on setting each story in a different country.”

Consider, for instance, the story “Gods Behind the Masks.” It features a skilled deepfake artist in Lagos, proficient in generative adversarial networks, image analysis, and media distribution. He’s commissioned to create a video of a deceased celebrity, one that can deceive not only viewers but also automated scanning systems and government facial recognition technology – only to suspect a hidden, questionable agenda (the details remain undisclosed).

Lee’s subsequent essay elucidates the concepts of GANs, facial recognition, and deepfakes, explaining the underlying principles and exploring the associated risks and benefits in a non-fictional manner. This pairing anchors the stories in realistic possibilities, rather than purely imaginative scenarios.

Balancing Realism and Speculation

I inquired about how Lee approached balancing realism with speculation when considering the evolution of technologies, like today’s imperfect deepfakes, over a 20-year timeframe.

“Predicting technological advancements decades into the future isn’t as challenging as many believe,” he responded, characteristic of someone known for anticipating and shaping the near future. “By analyzing trends, we can project the growth of computing power, data storage capacity, and the improvement in quality – whether it’s deepfakes or conversational AI. AI uniquely benefits from increased computing and data, allowing for quantifiable projections. If a technology improves by 2% annually, we can estimate its performance in 10 or 15 years.”

For technologies still under development, informed assumptions are necessary. Lee estimates his predictions are “around 80% accurate… meaning 80% of my forecasts should be reasonably on target within a 10-, 15-, or 20-year timeframe.” While a generous margin, it remains a significant claim.

An Optimistic Outlook

Both Chen and Lee consciously adopted an optimistic perspective. They didn’t aim to portray AI as a source of insurmountable problems or a panacea, but rather as an increasingly integral part of the human condition, potentially introducing new benefits alongside existing challenges.

“Much of science fiction concerning AI tends to be dystopian, like ‘Terminator,’ ‘Ex Machina,’ or ‘2001: A Space Odyssey.’ I believe we’ve created enough monsters in this realm,” Chen remarked. “Currently, we need a more positive, hopeful outlook. The world feels increasingly depressing, and we have a responsibility to imagine the future we want to inhabit, for ourselves and our children.”

The story “Quantum Genocide,” focusing on autonomous weapons, represents an exception to this rule. Here, the authors offered a stark and uncompromising portrayal of potential consequences. Lee explained, “I believe autonomous weapons pose the most significant existential threat that AI presents to humanity. I wanted the story to be unsettling, to raise awareness of the dangers.”

Global Perspectives on AI

Geopolitics and the concept of “AI superpowers,” as Lee has termed it, play a subtle role in the stories. Chen explained this as a deliberate emphasis on the universal and diverse applications of the technology.

“That’s why we set all ten stories in ten different countries and cultures,” he said. “AI should be accessible to everyone, not just the AI superpower nations or those privileged enough to utilize the technology. It should serve all of humanity. Unless we embrace this common-sense approach, and ensure equitable benefits for all, we risk a dangerous future dominated by autonomous weapons and AI superpowers exerting control over developing countries and vulnerable populations.”

The Human Response to AI

I observed a recurring theme in the book: individuals employing various methods to circumvent the everyday AIs they encountered. I asked Lee if he anticipated this becoming commonplace.

“I believe we are already being manipulated by AI,” he countered. “It’s a powerful objective function optimizer that drives companies like Facebook and Google to maximize profits, revenue, and click-through rates, presenting us with content designed to achieve those goals. As long as AI relentlessly optimizes a single objective, it creates a cat-and-mouse game between programmers – as seen in the realm of deepfakes. Humans don’t optimize for a single goal – an autonomous vehicle should prioritize safety while getting you from point A to point B, and a video recommendation system should suggest content that is both engaging and beneficial.” He concluded with optimism.

Expanding the Narrative

Finally, Chen expressed his satisfaction with the growing recognition of Chinese authors on the international literary scene and his enthusiasm for exploring new collaborative avenues for interpreting and promoting these ideas – including the burgeoning world of NFTs.

“Following the success of ‘The Three-Body Problem’ and ‘Folding Beijing,’ more Chinese science fiction authors and their works are gaining recognition globally,” he said. “However, literature is just one medium. Film, television, and games are highly influential, and NFTs and the metaverse are currently generating significant interest worldwide. I’m pleased to announce that we’re partnering with TR Lab, a new NFT art discovery platform, to commission leading digital artists to create NFT artwork inspired by the ten stories in the book. This represents a pioneering cross-medium collaboration.”