AI Shopping Growth: Adobe Predicts 520% Increase in 2025

Holiday Online Sales Forecast for 2024

This year’s U.S. holiday shopping season is projected to generate $253.4 billion in online revenue, representing a 5.3% increase compared to the previous year. These figures are based on a new report from Adobe Analytics, Adobe’s e-commerce intelligence division.

Data and Methodology

Adobe Analytics’ forecasts are derived from the analysis of over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail websites. This extensive data set includes 100 million SKUs spanning 18 distinct product categories.

The company’s analytics software is utilized by the majority of the top 100 online retailers in the U.S., providing comprehensive insights into consumer behavior and online shopping trends.

Key Shopping Days

Cyber Monday is anticipated to remain the peak shopping day of the year, with projected sales reaching $14.2 billion – a 6.3% year-over-year increase.

Black Friday is also expected to experience substantial growth, achieving $11.7 billion in sales, which is an 8.3% rise compared to last year.

Online spending on Thanksgiving Day is forecast to reach $6.4 billion, marking a 4.9% increase year-over-year, as early online sales gain momentum.

Factors Influencing Sales

Consumer demand for discounts will be a primary driver of sales during this holiday season, with products expected to be offered at an average of 28% off their listed prices.

Additional contributing factors include the increasing prevalence of mobile shopping, the adoption of AI-powered shopping services, and the growing popularity of buy now, pay later (BNPL) options.

The Rise of AI in Shopping

Adobe predicts a significant surge in generative AI-powered shopping this year. AI-driven traffic is expected to increase by 520% year-over-year, peaking in the ten days leading up to Thanksgiving.

This follows a substantial 1,300% increase in AI traffic to U.S. retail sites observed in 2024.

A survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers indicates that 53% may utilize AI services for product research. Furthermore, 40% plan to use AI for recommendations, 36% for deal discovery, and 30% for gift ideas.

AI is expected to be particularly impactful in categories such as toys, electronics, jewelry, and personal care.

Mobile Shopping Trends

Mobile devices are projected to account for a record 56.1% of online spending, surpassing desktop shopping.

Last year, mobile transactions represented 54.5% of online sales during the holiday period, up from 51.1% in 2023. The continued growth of larger-screened smartphones is likely contributing to this trend.

Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Growth

The use of buy now, pay later (BNPL) services is expected to continue its expansion, driving $20.2 billion in online spending – an 11% year-over-year increase.

Cyber Monday is anticipated to reach a new milestone for BNPL, with online spending in this category projected to hit $1.04 billion, a 5% year-over-year increase.

Social Media's Impact

Social media is poised to drive a 51% year-over-year increase in online revenue, a significant acceleration from the 5% growth seen in 2024.

Top Spending Categories

The leading categories for overall spending are expected to be:

• Electronics: $57.5 billion (up 4% YoY)
• Apparel: $47.6 billion (up 4.4% YoY)
• Furniture: $31.1 billion (up 6.5% YoY)