the case for funding fusion

The Shifting Landscape of Global Markets and the Rise of Decarbonization

Digital technologies have fundamentally altered market structures on a scale previously unseen. Currently, a new wave of innovation is gaining momentum: the decarbonization of the global economy.

Governmental Direction and Early Indicators

Despite a continuing lack of resolute commitment from governments in addressing the climate crisis, the overarching trend is becoming increasingly apparent. The price of carbon in Europe has experienced substantial growth, rising from under $10 to exceed $50 per ton.

A Dutch court delivered a significant ruling against Shell. Furthermore, the extensive power outage in Texas earlier this year highlighted the vulnerabilities inherent in current energy infrastructure, even within a highly developed nation. Increased investment in the development and deployment of dependable, clean electricity generation technologies is urgently needed to facilitate decarbonization.

Investment Trends in Low-Carbon Technologies

Investors with a long-term perspective are recognizing this imperative. According to Bloomberg, global investment in low-carbon technologies reached $500 billion in 2020.

Approximately $300 billion was allocated to renewable energy, with $140 billion directed towards the electrification of transportation and $50 billion towards heating solutions.

Remaining Challenges and Emission Levels

However, significant progress is still required to achieve our goals. The International Energy Agency projects that global CO2 emissions will increase by 1.5 billion tons this year compared to 2020 levels.

Coal, oil, and gas continue to constitute over 80% of global energy consumption.

The Promise of Nuclear Fusion

Therefore, continued support for emerging technologies with transformative potential is crucial. Nuclear fusion stands out as particularly promising. This process, which powers stars, could provide humanity with the cleanest energy source available.

We already benefit from fusion’s power indirectly through solar energy. Successfully constructing fusion reactors would provide a consistent, “always on” energy source, independent of weather patterns.

Justification for Fusion Funding

Why allocate funding to fusion research, given the current technological hurdles? Firstly, this is not an exclusive undertaking. We can simultaneously expand renewable energy infrastructure and explore novel energy production methods.

The latter, particularly in its early stages, will require a relatively modest financial investment. The U.S. government’s proposed $174 billion investment over ten years for vehicle electrification makes a $2 billion investment in a fusion power plant seem feasible.

Growing Energy Demand and Technological Advancements

Secondly, global electricity demand is poised to increase dramatically. The need for carbon-free energy sources is projected to triple by 2050, driven by factors such as increasing urbanization, the electrification of industrial processes, biodiversity loss, and rising energy consumption in developing economies.

Thirdly, substantial advancements have been made in supporting technologies. Superconducting magnets for magnetic-confinement fusion have become more affordable, lasers for inertial confinement fusion have become more powerful, and breakthroughs in materials science have enabled the creation of nanostructured targets for innovative fusion approaches, like the low-neutronic fuel pB11.

Entrepreneurial Efforts in Fusion Technology

Fortunately, a growing number of entrepreneurial ventures, led by world-class teams, are dedicated to developing fusion technology. Currently, at least 25 startups worldwide are pursuing fusion, employing a diverse range of technologies.

Investment in private fusion companies globally increased tenfold to nearly $1 billion in 2020, as reported by Crunchbase.

The Potential Economic Impact of Successful Fusion

The potential benefits of successful fusion are immense. The clean energy generation market represents a trillion-dollar opportunity.

Materials Research Society estimates that approximately 26 TW of primary energy capacity must be constructed globally between 2030 and 2050 to meet increasing energy demands. Just 1 TW of capacity could generate $300 billion in revenue, and a 15% market share from 2030 to 2050 would yield over $1 trillion in annual revenue.

Personal Investment and Motivation

We believe in pursuing multiple avenues for success, which is why Susan Danziger and I have already invested in three different fusion startups: Zap Energy and Avalanche in the United States, and Marvel Fusion in Germany.

However, our motivation extends beyond potential financial gains. There is a unique opportunity to profoundly impact the course of human history. Increased investment from entrepreneurs and investors, even a small portion of the wealth accumulated in recent decades, could significantly increase the likelihood of successful fusion.

This, in turn, would unlock further investment from both venture capital firms and governments.

A Call to Action: Prioritizing Decarbonization and Fusion Funding

The time to fully commit to decarbonization is now. Funding fusion, with its potential for breakthrough innovation, must be an integral part of this effort.