Black Friday – the event that spurred numerous other shopping days – may have evolved from being the definitive “start” of the Christmas shopping period (it consistently grows larger and begins earlier each year). Nevertheless, the day following Thanksgiving continues to attract a significant number of shoppers seeking discounts and serves as a key indicator of sales trends during the most crucial time for the retail and commerce industries.

This year demonstrated growth, though it fell within the lower portion of anticipated projections.

Adobe, which monitors online sales in real-time across 80 of the top 100 US retailers, encompassing approximately 100 million SKUs, reported that US consumers spent $9 billion online on Black Friday, a 21.6% increase compared to the previous year. Adobe’s initial forecast ranged from $8.9 billion to $9.6 billion in sales.

This figure currently positions Black Friday as the second-largest online spending day in US history (following Cyber Monday in 2019).

While the growth wasn’t as substantial as some predicted, it was influenced by current conditions. The Covid-19 pandemic resulted in noticeably smaller in-person crowds this year – a welcome change from the often-chaotic scenes of shoppers competing over televisions at stores like Walmart.

Online sales increasingly occurred through smartphones, reaching $3.6 billion this year, a 25.3% rise. Furthermore, alternative delivery methods – reflecting the maturation of the e-commerce sector – also saw growth, with in-store and curbside pickup increasing by 52% compared to 2019.

Adobe anticipates that Cyber Monday 2020 will generate between $10.8 billion and $12.7 billion in spending.

For context, Adobe recorded $7.4 billion in online sales in 2019, and reported that shoppers spent $5.1 billion on Thanksgiving, with over $3 billion spent online each day during the week leading up to the holiday.

Analysts observed that evening hours were particularly strong for online shopping, likely because individuals were either shopping in person during the day or engaging in other activities on their day off.

However, not all data supports this conclusion. Shopify, which analyzes data from its platform’s 1 million-plus merchants, indicated that the peak shopping hour was actually 9am Eastern, with sales reaching as high as $3 million per minute. The average order value for US shoppers was $95.60, they added.

Shopify’s per-minute sales figures highlight the gap between smaller merchants and the largest retailers: Adobe noted that its tracked sites (with at least $1 billion in annual sales) saw $6.3 million spent per minute on Black Friday.

Regardless, smartphones remain a significant driver of sales. Adobe reported that 40% of all sales were completed on mobile devices, slightly lower than the previous day but 7% higher than in 2019.

Similarly, smaller retailers are attracting a greater proportion of mobile shoppers: Shopify stated that approximately 70% of its sales were made via smartphones.

The initial results from “Small Business Saturday” will provide further insight into the weekend’s overall performance, with this event aiming to direct attention towards smaller businesses and away from major chains.

A key observation from the weekend’s data will be that offering products – particularly electronics, technology, toys, and sporting goods – at competitive prices will help retailers maintain sales momentum, especially given the strong year for online shopping. Many consumers have avoided crowded locations due to the pandemic, and the pandemic has also negatively impacted the broader economy.

Cyber Monday is expected to remain the largest shopping day, potentially generating between $11.2 billion and $13 billion in e-commerce transactions, representing a 19%-38% year-over-year increase.

The shift towards online shopping and concerns about declining sales have contributed to an extended “holiday season” with earlier discounts. Adobe’s consumer survey revealed that 41% of shoppers planned to begin their holiday shopping earlier this year due to these earlier promotions. Amazon’s delayed Prime Day, which began in October, was also seen by many as an opportunity to start holiday shopping.

“Black Friday is on track to achieve record-breaking levels as consumers turn to online channels to purchase both holiday gifts and essential items,” stated Taylor Schreiner, director, Adobe Digital Insights. “It’s also important to note that this year, we’re observing robust online sales momentum not only during major shopping events like Thanksgiving weekend, but throughout the entire holiday season, as consumers spread out their shopping over several weeks in response to ongoing, substantial discounts from retailers.”